中國銀行業輕鬆賺錢的時代告終
Profits at China’s four-biggest banks were further squeezed in the third quarter, as shrinking interest margins and rising bad loans took their toll on the once high-flying sector.
利差收窄和不良貸款上升開始影響一度風光無限的中國銀行業，中國“四大行”第三季度盈利遭到進一步擠壓。
The lacklustre reporting season is a sharp reversal for the banks, led by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which in 2012 ballooned to eclipse global peers in terms of assets. That prompted then-premier Wen Jiabao to comment that the banks “make profits far too easily”.
乏善可陳的財報季，顯示出以中國工商銀行(ICBC)爲首的四大行的命運逆轉。2012年，這些銀行曾迅速擴張，在資產規模上令全球同行黯然失色。這促使時任中國總理的溫家寶評論道，銀行“獲得利潤太容易了”。
Third-quarter earnings data released last week are the latest sign that the era of easy profits is ending as China’s economy slows and interest rates are deregulated. Net profit at Bank of China, the country's fourth-largest lender, fell in the third quarter for the first time on record, while profit was flat at China Construction Bank, the second largest.
隨着中國經濟放緩和利率去監管化，上週發佈的第三季度業績數據是銀行輕鬆獲利時代正在終結的最新跡象。第三季度，中國第四大銀行中國銀行(BoC)的淨利潤有記錄以來首次同比下降，第二大銀行中國建設銀行(CCB)的淨利潤則同比持平。
Net interest margins, the spread between the rates at which banks borrow and lend money, are shrinking as China completes interest rate deregulation. Alongside an interest-rate cut last month, the central bank said that it was eliminating the cap on deposit rates. The move followed a gradual loosening of the cap over the past two years.
隨着中國完成利率去監管化，淨利差（銀行借入和借出資金的利率之差）也在縮小。上月中國央行除降息以外，還宣佈取消存款利率浮動上限。過去兩年中，中國央行已經逐步放鬆這一上限。
The combination of a cap on deposit rates and a floor on lending rates for years ensured fat margins for Chinese banks. Combined profits at the big four banks rose from Rmb250bn ($39.6bn) in 2007 to Rmb738bn ($116.8bn) five years later. The loan-rate floor was eliminated in 2013. Analysts are undecided on the extent to which banks will now begin to raise deposit rates as they compete for customer funds.
多年來，存款利率上限加上貸款利率下限確保中國的銀行獲得豐厚的利潤。從2007年到2012年，四大行的總利潤從2500億元人民幣（合396億美元）增至7380億元人民幣（合1168億美元）。2013年，貸款利率下限被取消。目前，分析師還不確定銀行爲爭奪客戶資金會把存款利率擡高到何種程度。
“Interest-rate liberalisation is ushering in a new era of hand-to-hand combat for the banking sector,” Yang Rong, analyst at China Securities, wrote last week.
“利率自由化開創了銀行業競爭白刃戰的新時代，”中信建投證券(CSCI)的分析師楊榮上週寫道。
For now, Chinese banks remain among the most profitable in the world. Return on equity at CCB was 19.5 per cent in the first nine months of the year, down nearly 3 percentage points from the year before but still comfortably ahead of HSBC at 10.6 per cent.
目前，中國的銀行仍位居世界上最賺錢的銀行之列。今年頭9個月，建行的股本回報率爲19.5%，同比下降了近3個百分點，但依然遠高於匯豐(HSBC)的10.6%。
Bad loans are also rising as the economy slows and China’s manufacturing sector struggles with overcapacity and falling prices.
隨着中國經濟放緩、製造業艱難應對產能過剩和價格下降，銀行的不良貸款也在上升。
Non-performing loans rose at all four major Chinese banks, with Agricultural Bank of China suffering the largest jump, to 2.02 per cent of total assets at the end of September from 1.83 per cent three months earlier.
四大行的不良貸款都上升了，其中中國農業銀行(ABC)升幅最大，不良貸款率從6月底的1.83%升至9月底的2.02%。
Analysts note that headline profits at Chinese banks are skewed by the share of profits set aside as provisions against future bad loans. Less provisioning boosts quarterly profits but makes the balance sheet less resilient if defaults rise sharply. Some banks are now provisioning less conservatively.
分析師指出，爲未來不良貸款計提撥備的多少扭曲了中國的銀行利潤。少提撥備會提高季度利潤，但如果違約急劇上升，這也使資產負債表失去了一部分抗壓能力。目前有些銀行的撥備計提不如原來保守。
“Considering that the NPL growth rate reached a new all-time high of 73 per cent year-on-year, we feel [AgBank’s] policy of reducing impairments to loans in each successive quarter this year is not conservative,” wrote James Antos, Asia banks analyst at Mizuho Securities.
“考慮到不良貸款同比增長率達到了有史以來最高的73%，我們認爲（農行）今年逐個季度降低所計入的貸款減值損失的政策並不保守，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)亞洲銀行業分析師詹姆斯褠塛斯(James Antos)表示。
For the banking system as a whole, bad loans rose by Rmb398bn in the year to June to Rmb1.1tn, according to the latest government figures. The bad-loan problem is suspected to be more serious at small, unlisted banks. The official NPL ratio at rural commercial banks was 2.03 per cent at end-June.
根據最新的政府數據，在截至今年6月的一年裏，整個銀行業的不良貸款增加3980億元人民幣，至1.1萬億元人民幣。人們懷疑，規模較小、未上市銀行的不良貸款問題更爲嚴重。據官方數據，6月底農村商業銀行的不良貸款率爲2.2%。
Many analysts doubt the veracity of China’s official NPL figures, suspecting that lenders conceal delinquencies by rolling over or extending overdue loans.
許多分析師懷疑中國官方不良貸款數據的真實性，認爲銀行可能通過對逾期貸款進行展期或者延期隱瞞違約情況。
