美國乾旱引發全球糧食危機警報

The world is facing a food crisis as the worst US drought in 50 years pushes agricultural commodity prices to record highs.

隨着美國50年來最嚴重的旱情把大宗農產品價格推至創紀錄高點，世界正在面臨一場糧食危機。

Corn and soyabean prices surged yesterday, surpassing the peaks of the 2007-08 crisis that sparked food riots in 30 countries. Wheat prices are not yet at record levels but have rallied 50 per cent in five weeks, exceeding prices reached after Russia's 2010 export ban.

昨日玉米和大豆價格飆升，超出在30個國家引發糧食騷亂的2007-08年危機時的最高水平。小麥價格雖然尚未達到創紀錄水平，但五週來已上漲50%，超出2010年俄羅斯實施出口禁令之後的價位。

The drought in the US, which supplies nearly half the world's exports of corn and much of its soyabeans and wheat, will reverberate well beyond its borders, affecting consumers from Egypt to China.

美國乾旱引發的震盪，將遠遠超出其國境範圍，影響到從埃及到中國的消費者，因爲美國供應全球近一半的玉米出口以及相當大一部分大豆和小麥出口。

"I've been in the business more than 30 years and this is by far and away the most serious weather issue and supply and demand problem that I have seen by a mile," said a senior executive at a trading house. "It's not even comparable to 2007-08."

某家貿易公司的一名高管表示："我從業已經有30多年，這顯然是我見過的最惡劣的天氣，也是我遇到的最糟糕的供給問題。就連2007-08年的危機也不能與之相提並論。"

David Nelson, global strategist at Rabobank, said: "Today the [US crop] disaster is real, whereas to some degree the big run-up in prices in 2008 was speculatively driven."

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)全球策略師大衛?納爾遜(David Nelson)表示："當前（美國的收成）災難是實實在在的，而2008年農作物價格飆升在某種程度上是由投機推動的。"

In 2007-08, a spike in prices triggered food riots from Bangladesh to Haiti as the number of hungry people in the world surpassed 1bn. Economists point out that supplies of rice and to a lesser extent wheat – staples for the world's poorest people – remain relatively abundant, subduing prices.

2007-08年，價格飆升引發了從孟加拉國到海地的糧食騷亂，全球捱餓人口超過10億。經濟學家指出，當前大米以及（在較小程度上）小麥的供給相對充足，抑制了價格上漲，而大米和小麥是全球最貧困人口的主食。

However, Joseph Glauber, chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture, argued that the current situation was "far better" than 2008. "Prices are higher?.?.?.?there's no question about that, but we really had an extreme shortage of wheat in 2007-2008 and I don't see that at this point."

但美國農業部(USDA)首席經濟學家約瑟夫?格勞貝爾(Joseph Glauber)辯稱，當前的局勢比2008年"好得多"。"價格比較高，這一點毫無疑問。但2007-08年時，小麥嚴重匱乏，而我現在沒有看到這個問題。"

Justin Forsyth, chief executive of Save the Children, said that the rise in prices was likely to have an exaggerated effect on the world's poorest people. "Large numbers of people live very close to the edge," he said. "Failed rains and high food prices have tipped lots of people over the edge from being able to cope to not being able to cope."

"拯救兒童基金會"(Save the Children)首席執行官賈斯廷?福賽思(Justin Forsyth)表示，糧價上漲很可能對全球最貧困人口產生放大的影響。他說："很多人生活在邊緣。天氣乾旱、糧價高企使很多人陷入絕境，從勉強餬口到朝不保夕。"

The USDA slashed its corn production forecasts last week by the most in a quarter of a century, and conditions continue to deteriorate in the worst US drought since 1956.

上週，美國農業部調低了玉米收成預期，降幅達25年來最高紀錄。美國自1956年以來最嚴重的旱情繼續惡化。

Meteorologists have warned that at least half of the US corn and soyabean belt will remain dry over the next fortnight, and traders have cut their estimates for the US corn crop by a further 8-15 per cent.

氣象學家已經提出警告，未來兩週內，美國玉米和大豆生產帶至少有一半地區持續乾旱，交易商已將美國玉米收成估算進一步調降8%-15%。

"I get on my knees every day and I'm saying an extra prayer right now," Tom Vilsack, US agriculture secretary, said on Wednesday.

美國農業部長湯姆?維爾薩克(Tom Vilsack)週三表示："我每天都祈禱天氣好轉，現在我再多祈禱一次。"

Prices for corn yesterday hit a record $8.16 a bushel, and traders believe prices could rise above $9 by next month unless the weather in the US dramatically improves.

玉米價格昨日達到每蒲式耳8.16美元的創紀錄水平，交易商認爲，如果美國天氣沒有出現大幅好轉，下月價格可能漲至9美元上方。