霧霾促使中國富豪移民

The country's wealthiest residents are emigrating to other countries, in large part to avoid awful air pollution. The past few years have seen record-high levels of dangerous pollutants that have been linked to cancers and respiratory problems.

By the 1970s, Central Park was in a state of decay. Bridges were crumbling. Meadows had dried up. Graffiti and vandalism blighted playgrounds and benches. There was an overwhelming feeling that its best days had passed. “Positive use had increasingly been displaced by illicit and illegal activity,” is how the Central Park Conservancy describes it today.

Then George Soros stepped in. Frustrated by what he and others saw as New York City’s inept management of the 160-year-old institution, Soros and another financier commissioned a study on potential fixes. Its chief recommendation was creating a private citizen-based board to oversee an individual running the park’s operations — in effect, allowing private citizens to control the park. Soon the not-for-profit Central Park Conservancy was created, and the area returned to its former glory. Thirty years later the conservancy provides 75% of a nearly $60 million annual park budget and is a New York institution unto itself. The board of trustees includes former J.P. Morgan Chairman and CEO William Harrison, KKR’s Henry Kravis, and the hedge fund manager John Paulson, who two years ago announced he would give $100 million to the conservancy, the largest park donation ever.

The growing wealth gap around the world is raising concerns about economic fairness and class divisions. But Central Park’s revival illustrates the importance of the very wealthy in civic society. Their private dollars fund projects that governments won’t, and they have an especially key role in urban centers. All this explains why reports of China’s air pollution driving out wealthy residents are so troubling. Is China losing its most important residents to smog?

The air in northern Chinese cities has been poor for a while. But after the past few years of “air apocalypses” and record-high levels of PM 2.5, the dangerously small pollutants under 2.5 micrometers in size (1/30 the width of a human hair) that find their way into the bloodstream and have been linked to cancers and respiratory problems, citizens have increased complaints and growing numbers of rich have started making plans to move away.

A recent survey provides the strongest evidence yet that China’s polluted cities risk driving away the rich. Released in January by the Hurun Research Institute, the survey shows 64% of China’s rich (those with wealth above $1.6 million) were either immigrating to another country or planning to, a rise from 60% in the last poll two years ago. That came as a surprise to Rupert Hoogewerf, founder of the Hurun Report, an annual China rich list. He wasn’t expecting the already high figure to grow. He says pollution and food safety was the second-biggest reason for emigrating, after the general desire for security and financial well-being. Although the numbers of those emigrating haven’t yet reached a critical mass, Hoogewerf says “a lot of families are finding a lot of other rich families are going overseas,” providing examples to follow.

What’s happening is that those who can avoid the smog, especially families with children, are escaping what a recent Chinese study reportedly called “unlivable” cities like Beijing. They’re seeking permanent residency in America and Canada, and European countries Cyprus, Portugal, and the U.K.

Earlier this winter I spoke with half a dozen wealthy mothers in Beijing who explained to me how pollution had some of them considering moving away. It was enlightening to hear because what the survey doesn’t tell you is that the rich don’t take moving to another country lightly. The women explained what a hard decision it was to make. China’s culture and language had them wanting to stay. But many of them were afraid for their children’s health, leading them to plans to go abroad.

I met the mothers at a Starbucks. They swapped stories about smog like others might politics or sports in the café that opened to a luxury mall with Gucci, Prada, and Tom Ford boutiques.

Feng Fairbanks has two daughters, who are 10 years old and 8 years old. The local PTA raised 200,000 RMB ($33,000 USD) to buy air purifiers so that her children can at least enjoy clean air inside the school where recess is often cancelled because of smog. She wanted her daughters to attend school longer in Beijing, but she’s returning to the U.K. with them in July. The air pollution was becoming too serious to plan on staying in Beijing for the long term. Her British husband, who runs a business consultancy in Beijing, is staying in China.

Coco Xiao told me she avoids playing with her two daughters outside. Last summer the family toured the U.S. — visiting Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, then San Francisco — and was “amazed by the air.” Her husband is setting up a consulting business in San Francisco in part to give the family an option to escape the pollution. She says the “government cannot afford to wait” to fix the air, but she’s staying in Beijing for now.

The other mothers were more hesitant. As they sipped teas and lattes, they explained how the pollution was devastating but bearable — for the time being. May Guo, dressed fashionably in black leather boots, has a 9-year-old daughter with asthma. She pulled out a 3M mask — “the best,” she tells me — then explained that air pollution is one of many factors to consider before leaving China. There’s family, jobs, culture. She’s waiting to make a decision on leaving.

Of course, many rich will stay in smoggy Beijing and China’s other polluted cities. Opportunities in the world’s fastest-growing major economy are hard to turn down. And surveys show the Chinese remain loyal about investing at home. But the air pollution problem isn’t getting better anytime soon, and neither will the flight of China’s wealthiest residents.中國富豪正移民海外，主要是爲了避免空氣污染造成的危害。過去幾年，誘發癌症和呼吸系統疾病的污染物含量屢創新高。

上世紀70年代，紐約中央公園一片衰敗之氣。橋樑倒塌，草地枯萎，塗鴉和肆意破壞讓運動場和公園長椅一片狼藉。人們都認爲最好的光景已經過去。中央公園保護組織稱“人們不再合理利用園內設施，相反，非法活動日益猖獗”。

喬治·索羅斯站了出來，他對紐約市對這座160年之久的公共機構的糟糕管理感到失望，於是索羅斯和另一位金融家委託一家公司對未來的修繕進行研究。研究最重要的建議是成立由市民組成的私人委員會來監督公園的獨立運營，實際上是允許市民參與公園管理。非營利的中央公園保護組織不久便成立了，使這個地方重現昔日的輝煌。30年後的今天，公園保護組織每年近6000萬預算的預算中，有75%都由這個保護協會提供。委員會的理事包括摩根大通集團主席兼首席執行官威廉·哈里森、科爾伯格克拉維斯的亨利·克拉維斯以及對衝基金經理約翰·保爾森，後者是公園有史以來最大的捐助者，兩年前宣佈他將向中央公園保護組織捐贈1億美元。

世界日益拉大的貧富差距引發人們對經濟的公平性和階級分化的擔憂。然而中央公園的復興證明了一個城市中富有階層的重要性。他們用個人資金投資各種項目，而政府不會這樣做，同時，他們對市中心的發展也至關重要。這就是爲什麼人們對中國霧霾迫使富豪移民的現象感到不安。中國是否因爲霧霾而正在失去這些舉足輕重的大人物。

中國北方城市的空氣問題已持續若干年。但是最近幾年“空氣末日”和屢創新高的PM2.5，人們的抱怨聲此起彼伏，越來越多的富豪開始計劃移居海外。PM2.5是指直徑小於2.5微米（人類頭髮直徑的30分之一）的微型污染物，能夠進入血管並且可能引發癌症和呼吸系統疾病。

最近一項調查提供了最爲有力的證據，表明受污染的中國城市很可能會趕跑富人們。胡潤研究機構1月份的調查表明，有64%的中國富豪（身價超過160萬美元）已經移民或者正在計劃移民，而兩年前的結果爲60%。調查結果連中國年度富豪榜胡潤百富的創始人胡潤自己都吃了一驚。他沒想到數字在如此高的情況下還在增長。他說污染和食品安全是移民的第二大原因，而排在首位的是對安全和財富保障的渴望。儘管移民數字尚未達到臨界點，但是胡潤表示“很多家庭看到其他富裕家庭正在移居海外”，這成爲他們效仿的對象。

那些有能力遠離霧霾的人，尤其是有孩子的家庭，正在逃離諸如北京這樣的城市，中國最近一項研究稱這樣的城市“不宜居住”。他們在美國、加拿大以及一些歐洲國家，如塞浦路斯、葡萄牙和英國，正在尋求永久居住權。

去年初冬，我曾在北京與六位有錢的母親交流，其中一些人告訴我污染已經讓她們考慮離開這裏。讓我驚訝的是，她們做出移民決定並非草率之舉，而調查中並沒有提到這一點。她們告訴我這是一個非常艱難的決定，因爲她們捨不得中國的語言和文化。但是出於孩子健康方面的考慮，還是決定移民。

我和幾位母親在一家豪華購物中心的星巴克見了面，那裏還雲集了古馳、普拉達和湯姆福特等服裝店。當其他人在咖啡館討論政治或體育的時候，她們卻在交流着霧霾的信息。

費爾班克斯·馮有兩個女兒，大女兒10歲，小女兒8歲。當地的家長教師聯誼會募集了20萬元（3.3萬美元）購買空氣淨化器，這樣儘管由於霧霾孩子不能出去活動，她們至少還能在室內呼吸到清潔的空氣。她希望她們能夠多在北京的學校學習一段時間，但是她不得不在7月帶着她們回到英國。空氣污染太嚴重，她不能讓孩子們長期生活在北京。而她的英國丈夫在北京開了一家諮詢公司，因此仍會留在中國。

可可·肖告訴我她儘量不和兩個女兒到戶外玩耍。去年夏天她們一家到美國的亞特蘭大、拉斯維加斯、洛杉磯和舊金山旅遊，“那裏的空氣出奇的好”。他的丈夫在舊金山正在建立商業諮詢公司，一部分原因就是可以使她們遠離空氣污染。她說“政府不能坐在那裏等着”空氣自己好轉，但是她現在仍然會留在北京。

其他一些母親則更加猶豫不定。她們一邊喝着茶和拿鐵，一邊解釋說，儘管現在的污染很嚴重，但目前還是可以忍受的。打扮時尚的郭梅（音）穿着一副黑皮靴，有一個患有哮喘的女兒。她拿出一個3M的口罩，告訴我說“最好戴這個”。然後解釋說空氣污染是她離開中國之前考慮的諸多因素之一。此外還有家庭、工作、文化因素。對於是否移民，她還沒有做最後的決定。

當然很多富人還是會選擇留在霧霾籠罩的北京或中國其他受污染的城市。人們很難放棄在中國的發展機會。而且調查顯示中國人還是願意在國內投資。但是空氣污染問題短期內不會好轉，同樣，富人移居海外的趨勢短期內也不會扭轉。