香港房價不懼"佔中"繼續上漲

ISISDespite slowing growth, street protests and the prospect of higher interest rates, Hong Kong property prices – already the world’s highest – are continuing to rip even higher.

雖然經濟增速放緩、遊行示威加上利率可能上調，但香港房地產價格仍在持續走高，目前香港的地產價格已經居於全球最高位。

Average prices, as measured by local agency Centaline, clocked up a fresh record in October, presenting another challenge to the Hong Kong government, which is also facing a mass civil disobedience campaign now into its second month.

據香港的中原地產代理公司(Centaline)計算，香港10月平均房價觸及新的記錄，這向香港政府提出了新的挑戰。目前香港的大規模“公民不服從”(civil disobedience)運動進入第二個月，港府還忙於應對。

Despite the protests, which have shut down major highways across the city’s main business districts, new developments have continued to attract strong interest. When sales began last month at Pavilia Hills, a new luxury development, demand was such that a raffle had to be held simply for the right to put down a deposit.

儘管抗議活動持續，導致香港主要商業地區的主幹道關閉，但人們對新的開發項目興趣並未減退。當新的豪宅項目Pavilia Hills上月開盤時，需求旺盛，以至於開發商不得不抽獎，只爲讓購房者贏得交付訂金的權利。

The first round of apartments – the cheapest of which carried an asking price of more than US$2M – sold out within hours.

首批住宅在幾個小時內售罄，這些是該項目中價格最低的一批，單套售價超過200萬美元。

The strength of the property market poses a serious challenge to Hong Kong’s embattled government as many people struggle to find affordable housing. Average home prices are now 14.9 times median household income, according to research from Demographia, compared to 7.3 in London.

房地產市場的強勢給本已陷入困境的港府提出了一項嚴峻挑戰，因爲很多香港人現在根本買得起住房。根據Demographia的研究，香港平均房價爲家庭收入中值的14.9倍，而倫敦爲7.3倍。

Prices have more than doubled since 2008 fuelled by record low interest rates, imported from the US; a buoyant economy, and interest from mainland Chinese buyers.

自2008年以來，香港房價已上漲逾一倍，原因既有美國創紀錄的低利率的影響，也因香港富有活力的經濟以及中國內地買家的興趣。

In a city suffering from worsening inequality, sky-high home prices are a key political issue. CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, acknowledged in a recent interview that the cost of housing was a “major concern” and one that the government must “do more” to fix.

在一個不平等程度日益加深的城市，房價高企是一個關鍵的政治問題。香港特首樑振英(CY Leung)在最近的一次採訪中承認，房價是一個“重大問題”，政府必須“採取更多措施”解決這個問題。

“Poll after poll has shown that the one issue that’s uppermost on the minds of the people, particularly the younger generation, is the cost of housing,” said Mr Leung, himself a former developer. “The shortage of housing has worsened to such an extent that some young married couples live apart. It is not acceptable.”

“接二連三的調查都顯示，民衆、尤其更年輕一代民衆最關心的問題就是房價，”原本也是房地產開發商的樑振英說。“住房不足狀況已惡化到有些已婚夫婦不能住在一起的地步。這是讓人無法接受的。”

He also admitted that cooling measures – such as tighter lending requirements and increased stamp duty – had proved only “temporarily effective”.

他也承認，冷卻樓市的措施——比如收緊貸款要求和提高印花稅——均被證明只有“暫時效果”。

The end of quantitative easing in the US could also act as a dampener by raising borrowing costs.

美國量化寬鬆落下帷幕，也可能提高融資成本，成爲打壓房價的一個因素。

Though evidence so far is scant, the social unrest in Hong Kong may yet dent sentiment too. Citi recently cut its economic growth forecast for this year and next because of the drag on tourism and retail sales stemming from the protests.

儘管迄今證據很不充分，但香港社會動盪可能打擊市場信心。花旗(Citi)不久前下調了香港今明兩年的經濟增長預測，原因在於抗議活動拖累了旅遊業和零售銷售額。

Yet many property analysts remain unmoved, believing that any correction in prices remains a long way off.

不過，許多房地產分析師仍不爲所動，認爲香港房價調整仍是很遙遠的事。

“The reality is that interest rates will remain low, and supply will remain constrained. Uncertainty in other parts of the world will persist, and I think that will act to support values,“ said Simon Smith, head of Asia research at Savills.

“現實是，利率仍將保持在低水平，供應仍將趨緊。世界其他地區的不確定性仍不會消失，我覺得這將對香港房價起到支撐作用。”第一太平戴維斯(Savills)的亞洲研究主管西蒙•史密斯(Simon Smith)說。