亞投行的全球抱負

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is a newcomer with big ambitions. The Chinese-led institution cannot only already lend up to $250bn for infrastructure and other projects. It also wants to expand into a global body to rival long-established multilateral lenders.

亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB，中文簡稱“亞投行”）是一個有着很大抱負的新機構。這個由中國主導的機構不僅能爲基礎設施及其他項目提供多達2500億美元貸款，它還希望擴展成一個全球機構，與那些歷史悠久的多邊金融機構一爭高低。

At the same time, it is trying to cultivate a distinctive modus operandi. Unlike the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), it has no overarching objective to reduce poverty. China is also set to surrender its de facto veto power over the bank’s significant decisions but hopes to burnish its reputation with a new philosophy on development finance.

同時，亞投行還在力求建立一種獨特的辦事方式。與世界銀行(World Bank)和亞洲開發銀行(ADB)不同，亞投行並沒有減少貧困的首要目標。中國還打算讓出對該行重大決策的事實上的否決權，但希望以發展金融的一種新理念來提升其聲譽。

“I’m a Chinese national and I am very much patriotic, but I’m not of a very narrow nationalist mind,” says Jin Liqun, the AIIB’s president. “China needs to do something which can help it be recognised as a responsible member of the international economic community and maybe in the future be recognised as a responsible leader.

亞投行行長金立羣表示：“我是中國人，我非常愛國，但我不是一個思想狹隘的民族主義者。中國需要做一些事情，這些事有助於它被公認爲國際經濟社會的一個負責任的成員，未來還可能被公認爲一個負責任的領導者。”

“If I do well, that will enhance China’s credibility, but if this institution does not follow the international best practice, who will believe the Chinese leaders in the future?” adds Mr Jin, a former vice-president of the ADB and vice minister of finance in China.

他補充說：“如果我做得好，這將提高中國的聲譽，但如果這個機構沒有奉行國際最佳實踐，將來還有誰會相信中國領導者呢？”金立羣曾任亞洲開發銀行副行長和中國財政部副部長。

The journey towards such leadership has only just begun. Since it began business at the start of 2016, the bank has lent just over $2bn, a drop in the ocean compared to the $684bn in loans outstanding from China’s two largest bilateral development banks — the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China — at the end of 2014.

達到這一領導地位的進程纔剛剛開始。亞投行自2016年初投入運營以來，迄今貸款額剛過20億美元，與中國最大的兩家雙邊開發銀行——中國國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)和中國進出口銀行(Export-Import Bank of China)——截至2014年底6840億美元的未償貸款相比，只是滄海一粟。

It represents a similar fraction of the $700bn in loans outstanding at the end of 2014 from the World Bank and five other western-backed multilateral development banks — the ADB, the Inter-American Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the African Development Bank, according to a study by Boston University academics.

據波士頓大學(Boston University)學者的一項研究，世界銀行和另外五家西方背景的多邊開發銀行——亞洲開發銀行、美洲開發銀行(Inter-American Development Bank)、歐洲投資銀行(European Investment Bank)、歐洲復興開發銀行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)和非洲開發銀行(African Development Bank)——截至2014年底未償貸款爲7000億美元，亞投行與之相比同樣微不足道。

Mr Jin says he expects a rapid scaling up of business in coming years, noting that the bank is authorised to lend up to 2.5 times its capital of $100bn. “Which means that if this bank builds a very solid foundation, we don’t have to have a capital increase, we can do $250bn — the same as the World Bank today,” Mr Jin says.

金立羣表示，他預計未來幾年亞投行業務規模會迅速擴大，指出該行已被授權發放2.5倍於資本（1000億美元）的貸款。金立羣說：“這意味着如果亞投行打造一個非常堅實的基礎，我們不必追加資本，就可以放貸2500億美元，與世界銀行現在的規模相當。”

Such ambitions are mirrored in the AIIB’s membership roster, which was launched with regional nations such as South Korea, Singapore and Australia and further-flung countries including the UK, Norway and Germany.

這一抱負也反映在亞投行的成員名單上，其創始成員包括韓國、新加坡、澳大利亞等地區國家，以及英國、挪威和德國等較遙遠的國家。

In March, 13 countries — including Canada, Ireland and Ethiopia — were approved as prospective members to join the bank’s existing 57 members. This fills out the institution’s global footprint and reinforces China’s increasingly international agenda even as Donald Trump, the US president, rails against the ills of economic globalisation.

今年3月，加拿大、愛爾蘭和埃塞俄比亞等13個國家獲准成爲意向成員，加入該行現有57個成員的行列。此舉擴大了該機構的全球足跡，強化了中國日益國際化的議程，即便美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)仍在抱怨經濟全球化的弊病。

The more countries that join the AIIB, the starker the two big absences — of the US and Japan — appear.

加入亞投行的國家越多，美國和日本的缺席就越突出。

The US initially opposed the AIIB’s establishment, sharply criticising the UK for “constant accommodation” of China when London announced in 2015 that it would join. But Mr Jin is keeping the door open.

美國最初反對建立亞投行，2015年倫敦宣佈將加入該機構時，美國曾嚴厲批評英國對中國“不斷遷就”。但金立羣確保亞投行對美國保持大門敞開。

“Regardless of membership, the US and Japan — we can work together,” he says, speaking in the British-accented English he first picked up from BBC radio broadcasts he tuned into as a farm labourer during Chairman Mao’s Cultural Revolution.

金立羣用帶着英式口音的英語說道：“無論美國和日本有沒有成員資格，我們可以合作。”在毛主席發起的文化大革命期間，金立羣在農村勞動，那時他跟着英國廣播公司(BBC)的廣播節目學習英語。

“You don’t have to worry about your membership; you may not be able to join for various reasons. But the door [to membership] has flung open and will remain that way. I don’t have to say ‘I invite you’.”

“你不必擔心你的成員資格；你可能因爲種種原因無法加入。但（成員資格）的大門一直敞開着，而且將保持敞開。我不需要說‘我邀請你’。”

Once all applicants have joined, China is prepared to lose the current de facto veto it wields over the AIIB’s important decisions as the only member with a voting share of over 25 per cent. “When we have another group of countries joining, China’s voting power will go below 25 per cent,” he says, noting that the US has resisted such a loss of veto within the International Monetary Fund.

作爲表決權股份超過25%的唯一成員，中國目前對亞投行重要決定擁有事實上的否決權。等到全部申請人都加入時，中國準備交出這一權力。金立羣說：“等我們有另一批國家加入時，中國的投票權將降低到25%以下。”他同時指出，美國拒絕交出在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)內的否決權。

Much of the way the AIIB is structured derives from the best practice witness by Mr Jin while working at the ADB and World Bank. But there is one significant philosophical point of difference: the Chinese-led bank does not regard poverty reduction as its prime objective but rather as a desirable spin-off of infrastructure construction. “Look at China: a rising tide raises all the boats,” he says. “If you read the articles of the AIIB, there is nothing about the overarching objectives of poverty reduction.”

亞投行的構建方式有很大一部分源自金立羣在亞開行和世行工作期間見證的最佳實踐，但有一個不同的重要理念：這個由中國牽頭的銀行並不把減少貧困視爲首要目標，而是視其爲基礎設施建設的理想副產品。金立羣說：“看看中國：水漲船高。如果你去讀一讀亞投行的成立章程，完全沒有關於減少貧困的首要目標。”

Therefore, although the AIIB often lends alongside the World Bank and ADB, its mission remains broadly to build things that generate a commercial return or upgrade economic efficiency. Power station projects, roads, railways, urban development and telecoms are areas of particular interest.

因此，雖然亞投行經常與世行和亞開行聯手放貸，但其使命大體仍是建設能產生商業回報或提升經濟效率的項目，尤其關注電站項目、道路、鐵路、城市開發和電信等領域。

But there are some tricky decisions to be taken. China has been one of the world’s biggest backers of coal-fired power stations, lending $40.4bn to such projects between 2000 and 2016, according to a database maintained by Boston University’s Global Economic Governance Initiative. The biggest recipients of Chinese loans for such power plants have been India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Ukraine and Pakistan.

但亞投行仍要作出一些棘手決定。據波士頓大學“全球經濟治理倡議”(Global Economic Governance Initiative)維持的一個數據庫，中國一直是燃煤電廠的全球最大支持者之一，2000年至2016年期間對此類項目貸出404億美元。接受中國燃煤電廠貸款最多的國家是印度、印度尼西亞、越南、烏克蘭和巴基斯坦。

The technology remains popular because, in spite of the grave pollution produced, coal is one of the cheapest sources of electricity. In addition, China has the wherewithal to construct coal-fired plants more cheaply than any other country.

燃煤發電技術仍受歡迎的原因是，儘管造成嚴重污染，但煤炭仍是最低廉的電力來源之一。此外，相比其他任何國家，中國有能力以更低成本建造燃煤電廠。

Analysts familiar with the AIIB’s internal discussions say that the institution has yet to decide whether to allow the financing of coal-fired power stations. To do so would leave the bank open to criticism that it is exporting pollution and undermining the “best practice” to which Mr Jin aspires.

熟悉亞投行內部討論的分析師表示，該機構尚未決定是否允許爲燃煤電廠提供融資。若批准融資，將讓該行招致“輸出污染”的批評，並有損金立羣所渴望的“最佳實踐”。

However, to ban such lending would not only cut off a significant source of demand among recipient nations, it would also displease China’s powerful energy industry, which is looking to expand its global footprint.

但禁止此類貸款不僅會切斷接受國的一大需求來源，也會觸怒中國強大的能源產業，該產業正在尋求擴大全球業務。