令人不安的歷史回聲 Troubling warnings for the US from the 1930s

When people strike comparisons with Hitler — or Munich — I usually reach for my earplugs. The same applies to the Great Depression. There is nothing on today’s horizon that compares with the Nazis or the mass privation that followed the 1929 stock market crash.

當人們提到與希特勒(Hitler)或者慕尼黑的比較時，我通常會想辦法把耳朵堵上。而與大蕭條(Great Depression)相比較時，我也同樣會如此。在當今的地平線上，沒有什麼事情能與納粹(Nazis)或1929年股市崩盤後的大規模貧困相比擬。

Yet there are echoes we would be foolish to ignore. Western democracy faces no mortal threat. But it is going through an acute stress test. On both sides of the Atlantic, people have lost faith in their public institutions. They are also losing trust in their neighbours. Co-operation is fraying and open borders are in question. We can no longer be sure the centre will hold — or even that it deserves to.

然而，當前確實存在一些歷史的回聲，我們忽視它們將是愚蠢的。西方民主體制並不面臨生死存亡的威脅。但它正在經受一場嚴峻的壓力測試。在大西洋兩側，人們都已喪失了對公共機構的信心。他們也正在喪失對鄰國的信任。相互合作正產生裂痕，開放邊境正產生變數。我們無法再確信中間立場將會繼續佔上風——甚至無法確信它值得堅守。

The most insidious trend is vanishing optimism about the future. Contrary to what is widely believed, the majority’s pessimism pre-dates the 2008 financial collapse. At the height of the last property bubble in 2005, Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said society could not long tolerate a situation where most people were suffering from declining standards of living.

最隱祕而有害的趨勢是，對未來的樂觀情緒正在喪失。與普遍認爲的相反，多數人的悲觀態度要早於2008年的金融崩盤。在2005年上一個地產泡沫達到巔峯之際，時任美聯儲(Fed)主席艾倫•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)曾表示，整個社會無法長期容忍多數人生活水準下降的局面。

“This is not the sort of thing that a democratic society — a capitalist democratic society — can readily accept without addressing,” he said. This came after several years of falling median income.

他說：“這不是一個民主社會——更準確地說是一個資本主義民主社會——可以輕易接受而不加應對的那種狀況。”他說出這番話的時候，美國收入中位數已連續下降多年。

For most Americans and Europeans the situation is worse today than it was then. Many have since had their homes repossessed. Median incomes were lower in 2015 than when Mr Greenspan issued his warning. A majority on both sides of the Atlantic believe their children will be worse off than they are.

對多數美國人和歐洲人來說，如今的局面比那時候更糟。自那以來，許多人的住房已被收回。2015年美國收入中位數比格林斯潘發出警告時更低。大西洋兩岸的多數人都認爲，子女的境況將比他們自己更糟糕。

They may be right. Economists debate whether the sharp decline in productivity growth during the past 15 years is the result of mismeasurement. Polls suggest there is nothing wrong with the yardstick. Most people feel worse off, which is what matters in politics. In his book, the Rise and fall of American growth, Robert Gordon argues that the century-long leap in productivity that began in 1870 can never be repeated. Even if Mr Gordon is eventually proved wrong, will society have the patience to wait and see?

他們也許是正確的。經濟學家正在辯論一個問題：過去15年裏生產率增長速度的急劇下降會不會是測算標準錯誤的結果？調查顯示，測算標準並沒有問題。多數人確實感覺生活更差了，這纔是政治中的重要事情。在《美國成長的興衰》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)一書中，羅伯特•戈登(Robert Gordon)聲稱，始於1870年、長達百年的生產率飛躍永遠都不可複製。就算最終戈登被證明錯誤，整個社會會不會有耐心等到結果？

The second disturbing trend is a growing sense of unfairness — the feeling that elites are continually lining their pockets. Scholars talk about the “Great Gatsby Curve” — the massive rise in inequality that took place in the 1920s before the Wall Street crash. The numbers today are eerily similar to then. Labour’s share of national income keeps plummeting. Despite the US economy’s recovery, 2015 saw the sharpest rise in US wage inequality since the end of the Great Recession.

第二個令人不安的趨勢是與日俱增的不公平感，也就是那種精英階層正在繼續大肆賺錢的感覺。學者們談到“了不起的蓋茨比曲線”(Great Gatsby Curve)，這個名字是指上世紀20年代華爾街崩盤前出現的不平度大幅攀升的現象。如今的數據與那個時代存在詭異的相似之處。勞動者佔國民收入的份額不斷下落。儘管美國經濟復甦了，但2015年出現了自大蕭條結束以來美國薪資不平等程度的最大升幅。

The average American’s chances of moving up an income bracket are no better today than when President Barack Obama took office. Last year he said that for too many Americans the “ladders of opportunity” had disappeared. He was right. Yet he has been unable to do much about it.

如今，普通美國人收入再上一檔次的機會並不比美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上任時更好。去年他曾表示，對太多美國人來說，“機遇的梯子”已經消失。他說得沒錯，然而他對此也拿不出什麼辦法。

The third is a rising culture of nihilism. When people think their concerns are being ignored — and worse, that they are also being belittled — they lash out. Hell hath no fury like an angry electorate. It is easy to poke fun at the likes of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump and the leader of the UK’s Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn. They provide an endless supply of material.

第三個趨勢是不斷崛起的虛無主義文化。當人們認爲自己關切的問題被忽視時——更糟糕的是他們還受到貶低時，他們會忍不住發泄怒火。地獄烈焰不及“憤怒選民”之怒火。對於類似共和黨頭號種子唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和英國工黨(Labour)領導人傑裏米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)這樣的人物，冷嘲熱諷是很容易的。他們提供了無窮無盡的素材。

But the ease with which they can be lampooned should not obscure what is driving their success. The puzzle is not that such figures are finding an audience, but that they did not emerge sooner. Do not expect them to vanish into the night.

然而，他們如此容易受到嘲諷的事實，不應該遮蓋推動他們成功的因素。令人困惑的並不是這種人竟然會找到聽衆，而是他們竟然沒有更早出現。不要指望他們會消失在黑夜中。

Contrast Mr Trump’s promise of strong leadership and “winning big” with the timid incrementalism of Hillary Clinton’s platform. She promises to finesse the gains of Mr Obama’s first two terms. Mr Trump vows to change the rules of the game entirely.

特朗普對強勢領導和“大贏一把”的承諾，與希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)競選平臺的溫吞漸進主義形成鮮明反差。希拉里承諾在奧巴馬兩個任期成就的基礎上謀求發展。而特朗普則發誓要完全改變遊戲規則。

The final echo from the 1930s is in the declining global order. In a widely cited interview with the Atlantic last week, Mr Obama complained about “free riders” among America’s allies, including David Cameron’s Britain. He also expressed disdain for the US establishment’s obsession with “credibility” as the measure of American power, and force as their perennial solution.

來自上世紀30年代的最後一個回聲，是全球秩序的不斷下滑。奧巴馬最近在接受《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)被廣泛援引的專訪時，抱怨美國盟友中的“搭便車者”，其中包括了戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)的英國。此外，對於美國體制內人士癡迷於把“可信度”視爲美國力量的衡量標準、把武力視爲永恆的解決方案，奧巴馬也表示了蔑視。

Mr Obama’s words have elicited outrage in both London and Washington. Yet he gave a good summary of US public opinion. Indeed, what Mr Obama said is not wildly different from what Mr Trump has been arguing. Americans are tired of paying for Pax Americana.

奧巴馬的話在倫敦和華盛頓都引起了憤慨。不過，他很好地總結了美國的公衆輿論。的確，奧巴馬的言論與特朗普的主張沒有太大差別。美國人已厭倦了爲“美國治下的和平”(Pax Americana)買單。

Unlike Britain in the 1930s, the US can still bear the burden. But it does not want to.

與上世紀30年代的英國不同，美國仍然能夠承擔得起這一負擔，不過美國並不想這麼做。

Neville Chamberlain, the proponent of Nazi appeasement, said Czechoslovakia was not worth the bones of a single British grenadier. Mr Obama believes much the same about the people of Syria. He expressed no concern about Syria’s impact on Europe. The flood of refugees is Europe’s problem. Ukraine is in Russia’s neighbourhood. The Middle East must fend for itself. Such were the valedictory thoughts of a world-weary president. They were not a million miles from Mr Trump’s.

支持對納粹採取綏靖政策的內維爾•張伯倫(Neville Chamberlain)曾表示，捷克斯洛伐克的價值，比不上一個英國士兵的骨頭。奧巴馬對敘利亞人民也持有差不多的看法。他從未表達過對敘利亞戰爭對歐洲衝擊的關切。蜂擁而至的難民是歐洲的問題。烏克蘭處在俄羅斯的勢力範圍以內。中東必須依靠自己。這就是一位對世界感到厭倦的總統離任前的想法。它們與特朗普的看法之間並不是遠隔萬里。

The coming months provide a test. In June, the UK votes on whether to leave the EU. If Brexit takes place, the European project could start to go backwards. Will America care?

今後幾個月將出現一場考驗。6月份英國將爲是否離開歐盟(EU)舉行公投。如果真的發生英國離開歐盟的現象，整個歐洲一體化項目可能開始走回頭路。美國會關心這事麼？

By then, we will also know the battle lines for the US presidential election. In all probability it will be Mrs Clinton against Mr Trump. Western democracy is on trial. Autocrats in Russia and China will be watching keenly.

到那時候，我們也會知道美國總統選舉的戰線在哪裏。這一選戰多半會在希拉里和特朗普之間展開。西方民主體制正面臨考驗。俄羅斯和中國的威權統治者將密切關注。