歐洲悲觀主義決定歐盟未來
In an old Polish joke, a Frenchman and a Russian are travelling in opposite directions on the Moscow to Paris express when their trains pull into Warsaw central station at the same time. Mistakenly believing they have reached their final destination, each steps out of the train and on to the platform.
有一個波蘭老笑話，一個法國人從巴黎乘火車到莫斯科去，一個俄羅斯人從莫斯科乘火車到巴黎去，當他們各自的列車同時駛入華沙中央火車站的時候，兩人都誤以爲自己已經抵達目的地，都走出列車踏上了月臺。
My God, Moscow is every bit as desolate as I expected! the Frenchman cries.
我的上帝啊，莫斯科跟我想的一樣荒涼！法國人嚷道。
Meanwhile, the Russian exclaims, Ah, Paris is beautiful.
同時俄羅斯人大叫，啊，巴黎真美。
How much has changed since the two gentlemen arrived in Warsaw?
自從這兩個人抵達華沙以來，發生了多大變化呢？
The debate about the future of Europe in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU takes place in the shadow of rising Euroscepticism.
在英國民衆投票決定退出歐盟(EU)之後，有關歐洲未來的辯論就籠罩在歐洲懷疑主義(Euroscepticism)高漲的陰影之下。
But it could well turn out that it is not Euroscepticism (the belief that the EU is fundamentally evil) that is Europe’s central problem today, but Europessimism, the feeling that the project is doomed.
但事實可能證明，當今歐洲的核心問題並非歐洲懷疑主義（認爲歐盟從根本上是惡的），而是歐洲悲觀主義(Europessimism)，一種認爲歐盟一體化註定失敗的想法。
It is not the anger of the Leavers but the worries of those who fear being left out that will decide the future of the EU.
決定歐盟未來的，不是脫歐派的憤怒，而是那些擔心被排除在外的人們的憂慮。
Central Europe is the land of Europessimists.
中歐是歐洲悲觀主義者的聚集地。
Most people in the Visegrad group of EU member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) are still positive about the union but they worry about its survival.
在由捷克、匈牙利、波蘭和斯洛伐克這4個歐盟成員國組成的維謝格拉德集團(Visegrad group)，多數人依然對歐盟抱有希望，但他們擔心歐盟的存亡問題。
For many, it carries echoes of the disintegration of the Soviet empire.
在很多人來看，蘇聯帝國解體的遺音正在迴響。
The day after the British referendum in June, Poles woke up to the realisation that an estimated 850,000 of their compatriots live and work in a country that wishes no longer to be part of the EU.
在6月英國舉行公投後次日，波蘭人認識到，據估計有85萬波蘭同胞在一個希望脫離歐盟的國家生活和工作。
They also saw that Warsaw was in danger of losing a critical ally in its struggle to resist further political integration in the bloc and to balance the preponderant influence of Germany.
他們也看到，在努力抵制歐盟進一步政治一體化、平衡德國作爲歐盟主導者的影響力方面，華沙有可能失去一個關鍵的盟友。
The difficulty here, however, is that while Poles are uneasy about the direction in which the EU is heading, many Europeans are concerned about recent political developments in Poland.
然而，問題在於，在波蘭人對歐盟的前進方向感到不安的同時，許多歐洲人也在擔憂波蘭近期政治動向。
Once the poster child for success in a post-communist world, Poland is deeply divided.
波蘭曾經是後共產主義世界中的成功典範，現在卻深陷分裂。
Less than a year after the Law and Justice party (PiS) won the general election, the country faces a constitutional crisis fomented by a conspiracy-minded rightwing government.
在法律與正義黨(PiS)贏得大選後不到一年，波蘭就面臨着一場憲法危機，挑起這場危機的正是具有陰謀論思想的右翼政府。
The conservative revolution spearheaded by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the PiS leader, has polarised the country, scaring off foreign investors and minimising Poland’s influence within the EU.
法律與正義黨的領袖雅羅斯瓦夫•卡欽斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski)發起的保守主義革命讓這個國家走向了兩極分化，嚇走了外國投資者，讓波蘭在歐盟內的影響力大大減弱。
The government has curbed the powers of the independent judiciary; announced a plan to put the majority of the banking sector back in Polish hands; made public television a propaganda vehicle for conservative Catholic values and has been ruthless in seeing off opponents.
政府已經限制了獨立司法機構的權力；宣佈了一項讓大部分銀行業資產重回波蘭人控制的計劃；讓公共電視臺成爲保守的天主教價值觀的宣傳工具，並且冷酷無情地打擊對手。
A report published in July by the liberal Stefan Batory Foundation asserts that the draft constitutional tribunal law before the Polish parliament would, if it is passed, constitute a serious violation of the principle of the rule of law and a threat to . . . fundamental . . . civil rights and freedoms.
奉行自由主義立場的斯特凡•巴托裏基金會(Stefan Batory Foundation)7月發佈的一份報告聲稱，波蘭議會將表決的《憲法法院法草案》如果獲得通過的話，將嚴重違反法治原則，構成對基本公民權利和自由的威脅。
From the PiS point of view, it is logical to try to concentrate power in party hands because, if it does not control institutions like the courts, media or central bank they will be controlled by its enemies.
站在法律與正義黨的角度，試圖把權力集中在本黨手中是合理的，因爲如果其不控制法院、媒體或者央行等機構，它們就會被該黨的敵人控制。
The separation of powers enshrined in liberal democracies does not stop those in charge from abusing their office; instead, it enables them to evade responsibility and stymies popular demands for radical change.
自由民主政體所推崇的三權分立不能阻止掌權者濫用職權，反而使他們能夠逃避責任，阻撓民衆對根本改革的訴求。
One could be forgiven for assuming that such a government would be Eurosceptic, yet neither it nor the majority of Poles wants to leave the EU.
如果人們認爲這樣一個政府抱着歐洲懷疑主義，這情有可原，但無論是波蘭政府還是波蘭多數民衆都不想脫離歐盟。
The bloc therefore has a tough choice to make.
因此歐盟必須做出一個艱難的選擇。
The European Commission and some member states are tempted to insist that the Polish government has violated the values of the EU and to seek legal recourse.
歐盟委員會(European Commission)和一些成員國不免認爲波蘭政府違反了歐盟價值觀，並有意訴諸法律手段。
With Britain having voted in favour of Brexit, some in Brussels believe that the EU should demonstrate not only that it can hurt the Leavers but also that it has the power to sanction those who break the rules.
英國投票結果倒向退歐之後，布魯塞爾的一些人士認爲，歐盟應該對外展示，其不僅能夠傷害到脫歐派，也有權力制裁那些違反規則的人。
Such a policy would be a mistake.
這樣的政策是錯的。
Brussels and the individual member states should not shy away from criticising Poland, of course, but they should make clear that reinventing and reinvigorating the EU will not take place at the expense of central Europe.
當然，布魯塞爾方面和各成員國不應迴避批評波蘭，但它們應該明確表示，重塑和復興歐盟不會以犧牲中歐利益作爲代價。
Any reform of the EU that looks like it will split the bloc along the west-east axis will further the process of disintegration.
任何看上去可能將歐盟分裂爲東西兩部分的歐盟改革方案只會進一步促進歐盟解體。
European politics today presents a paradox: in their vision for the EU, central European governments appear to represent the frustration and resentment of the populists, yet it is their own pro-EU voters to whom they are answerable.
當今歐洲政治領域存在一種矛盾：在他們關於歐盟的設想中，中歐國家政府似乎代表了民粹主義者的失望和怨恨情緒，然而他們需要對本國的親歐盟選民負責。
So Brussels should not be in a hurry to write central Europe off.
因此，布魯塞爾不應急着放棄中歐。
