全球航空業飛入"完美風暴"Global Airlines Fly Into 'Storm'

Further evidence of the tough conditions facing international airlines emerged in Australia on Tuesday after flagship carrier Qantas Airways Ltd. said it will post a full-year loss and the president of Emirates, the Middle East's largest airline, warned of a "perfect storm" in the industry that could force many airlines to downsize.

有關國際航空公司面臨惡劣環境的更多證據週二在澳大利亞浮現。此前，澳大利亞旗艦航空公司澳洲航空公司(Qantas Airways Ltd.，簡稱澳航)説將公佈全年虧損的數據，而中東最大航空公司阿聯酋航空(Emirates Airline)的總裁也提醒説，航空業可能出現迫使很多公司瘦身的“完美風暴”。

Qantas is forecasting as much as a 91% slump in pretax earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30 amid a drop in passenger numbers. The airline is trying to restructure its unprofitable long-haul business and cut costs in areas such as staffing, aircraft maintenance and fuel.

澳航稱，由於乘客人次減少，預計在截至6月30日這一財年公司税前收益下滑幅度或將達到91%。該公司目前正努力將其不盈利的長途飛行業務進行重組，同時在人員、飛機維護和燃料等方面削減成本。

Higher fuel costs and a treacherous economic environment are weighing on global airlines, including Qantas and Emirates Airline. Asia's carriers last year earned 47% less in net profit than in 2010, at US$4.8 billion, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. Last month, Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said it was considering whether to accelerate the retirement of aging aircraft after it warned of 'disappointing' first-half financial results. Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Korean Airlines recently posted quarterly losses, forcing both to rethink schedules and adjust aircraft deployment to boost profits.

不斷上漲的燃料價格和暗流湧動的經濟環境令全球航空公司承壓，包括澳航和阿聯酋航空。據亞太航協(Association of Asia Pacific Airlines)統計，亞洲航空公司去年實現淨利潤48億美元，較2010年跌47%。國泰航空有限公司(Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.)上個月説，正在考慮是否加快老化飛機的淘汰速度。該公司此前曾警告説，今年上半年的財務業績可能令人失望。新加坡航空公司(Singapore Airlines Ltd.)和大韓航空(Korean Airlines)前不久也公佈了季度虧損，因此均不得不為提高利潤而重新考慮航班安排並調整飛機調度問題。

Even fast-growing Middle East airlines, once perceived to be immune from global trends, have started to voice concern about business conditions. "It's a perfect storm of adversity now facing airlines," Tim Clark, president of Dubai-based Emirates Airline, said in an interview. 'The euro is going south, the pound is going south, fuel costs are still too high.'

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images燃油成本和日趨疲軟的經濟正給亞太地區的航空公司帶來麻煩。圖為新加坡，一名澳航的飛行員正在檢查一架空客飛機的尾部。就連快速增長的中東地區的航空公司也開始對航空業面臨的環境表示擔憂。這些航空公司一度被認為不受全球趨勢的影響。總部位於迪拜的阿聯酋航空的總裁克拉克(Tim Clark)接受採訪時説，歐元正在走弱，英鎊也在走弱，當前的燃料價格依舊太高。

Amid those challenges, though, Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways said Tuesday it has bought a nearly 4% stake in Qantas rival Virgin Australia Ltd. Shares in Virgin Australia closed at 41 Australian cents (40 U.S. cents) each Monday, leaving the company with a market capitalization of 906.2 million Australian dollars (US$881.5 million). That gives an implied valuation of A$35.9 million on Etihad's 3.96% stake.

儘管面臨着眾多挑戰，總部位於阿布扎比的阿提哈德航空公司(Etihad Airways)週二仍説，該公司收購了與澳航的競爭對手維珍澳大利亞航空公司(Virgin Australia Ltd.)近4%的股份。維珍澳大利亞航空的股價週一收於每股0.41澳元（合0.40美元）。按照這個價格推算，該公司的市值為9.062億澳元（合8.815億美元），而阿提哈德航空收購該公司3.96%的股份應該花了3,590萬澳元。

A spokesman for Etihad said it would like to raise its holding to at least 10%. Etihad operates 24 flights a week between Abu Dhabi in the Persian Gulf and Australia.

阿提哈德航空的發言人説，希望將對維珍澳大利亞航空的持股比例提高至最少10%。阿提哈德航空每週有24個航班往返於阿布扎比和澳大利亞。阿布扎比位於波斯灣(Persian Gulf)。

Mr. Clark of Emirates cautioned that many global carriers could be forced to retrench. Last month, Emirates said its latest fiscal-year net profit fell 72% after the company took a US$1.6 billion hit from high fuel costs. Mr. Clark added Tuesday that the price of Brent crude oil will need to drop to between US$80 and US$90 a barrel, from about US$100, to revive margins.

克拉克提醒説，全球很多航空公司可能都會被迫壓縮開支。阿聯酋航空上個月説，公司最近一個財年的淨利潤跌幅達72%，高昂的燃油價格使得成本上升了16億美元。克拉克週二還説，布倫特原油價格要從目前的每桶約100美元跌至80至90美元，才有可能恢復原來的利潤率。

The International Air Transport Association in March cut its forecast for airlines'2012 net profit to a combined US$3 billion, off from US$3.5 billion in an earlier estimate.

國際航空運輸協會(International Air Transport Association)今年3月將其對全球航空公司2012年淨利潤的預測從此前估計的35億美元下調至30億美元。

Concern that Qantas will need to raise funds to retain its investment-grade debt rating helped drive the company's shares to a record low Tuesday. The stock ended down 19% at 1.16 Australian dollars (US$1.13) a share after the profit warning. Chief Executive Alan Joyce said Qantas has a cash balance of more than A$3 billion and an undrawn debt facility of A$300 million that it can draw on if Europe's economic problems turn global, hitting commercial aviation.

週二，由於市場擔心澳航需要籌集資金以維持其投資級的債務評級，其股價因此被拉低至紀錄低位。在公司發出盈利預警之後，澳航股價收盤跌19%，至1.16澳元（約合1.13美元）。澳航的首席執行長喬伊斯(Alan Joyce)説，澳航的現金餘額超過30億澳元，還未動用的信貸額度有3億澳元，如果歐洲的經濟問題影響到全球，衝擊到商業航空市場，那麼澳航可以動用這些信貸額度。

Still, Mr. Joyce said Qantas has the 'flexibility to reinstate or further reduce capital investment as appropriate.'

不僅如此，喬伊斯還説澳航擁有一定的靈活度，能夠重新進行或進一步縮減資本投資，以將其保持在適當的水平。

The airline already plans to delay two deliveries of A380 superjumbo jetliners, valued at US$390 million each at list prices, from the Airbus unit of European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. Qantas in August ordered as many as 110 single-aisle A320 Airbus jets, valued at US$9 billion at list prices, in the biggest single aircraft order in Australian history. The order included 78 A320neos, the more fuel-efficient version of the A320, that Qantas will operate primarily on domestic and Asian routes. Qantas is also awaiting delivery of 50 Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliners.

澳航已經計劃推遲從歐洲航空防務和航天公司(European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co., 簡稱EADS)旗下的空中客車公司(Airbus)接收兩架A380超大型客機，按目錄價格計算，每架客機的售價為3.9億美元。去年8月，澳航訂購了多達110架空客單走道A320客機，按目錄價格計算，訂單價值達90億美元。這是澳大利亞歷史上單筆額度最高的飛機訂單。訂單中包括78架A320neo。A320neo是A320的改款機型，其燃油效率更高。澳航將主要在國內和亞洲航線上使用A320neo。澳航也正在等待波音公司(Boeing Co.)交付50架787夢想客機(787 Dreamliner)。

As of June 30 last year, Qantas had net debt including off balance-sheet liabilities of 6.97 billion Australian dollars (US$6.78 billion). The airline said Tuesday that its pretax profit could fall as much as 91% to A$50 million for the fiscal year ending later this month. Most analysts had expected pretax earnings of about A$300 million.

截至去年6月30日，澳航的淨債務（包括表外負債）達到了69.7億澳元（約合67.8億美元）。澳航週二表示，在截至今年6月底的這一財年其税前利潤降幅可能高達91%，至5,000萬澳元。大多數分析師此前預計澳航這一財年的税前利潤能夠達到約3億澳元。

"People were aware of the economic environment but it's really starting to bite into earnings," said Angus Gluskie, managing director of White Funds Management, which holds a small stake in Qantas. "It's also biting into cash flows. It's highly likely you're going to see them needing capital very shortly."

White Funds Management的董事總經理格拉斯基(Angus Gluskie)説，人們已經意識到經濟環境不好，但這已經開始影響到公司利潤，同時還影響到現金流；你很可能將會看到這些公司馬上需要資金的情況。White Funds Management持有澳航少數股份。

Qantas is seeking to turn around its unprofitable long-haul business, which the carrier aims to return to break-even by 2014. To stem losses, the airline is terminating poorly-performing routes, cutting thousands of jobs, consolidating engineering and catering bases, and establishing joint ventures in Asia such as Jetstar Japan and Jetstar Hong Kong.

澳航正試圖轉變長途航線無法盈利的狀況，澳航的目標是到2014年前該項業務能夠重新實現盈虧平衡。為了遏制虧損，澳航關停了業績不佳的航線，削減了數千個就業機會，合併了工程和餐飲基地，在亞洲設立了捷星日本(Jetstar Japan) 和捷星香港(Jetstar Hong Kong)等合資企業。

Despite Tuesday's profit warning, the status of the company's investment-grade rating is likely to be dependent on the outcome of the airline's strategic review. "Very importantly from a credit perspective is the trend in cash flow over the next two years," said May Zhong, a credit analyst at Standard & Poor's.

儘管週二公佈了盈利預警，但澳航能否保住投資級的債務評級可能取決於澳航戰略審查的結果。標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)的信用分析師May Zhong説，未來兩年澳航的現金流變化趨勢對其信用評級十分重要。