財經: 美元想雄起,或能迎來牛市大綱
The stars are aligning for a major bull run in the dollar. As America emerges from the Great Recession in better shape than the rest of the developed world, the US currency is on a roll.
美元有望迎來一波大牛市行情。美國從“大衰退”(Great Recession)中復甦的情況好於其他發達國家，美元也節節攀升。
A wave of upbeat economic figures, the latest being robust February jobs data, have pushed the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield back above 2 per cent and left the S and P 500 stock market index sitting just 1 per cent below a record high. And that is good news for the dollar.
一連串經濟數據轉好（最新表現是2月就業數據強勁），推動美國基準10年期國債收益率回到2%以上，標準普爾500指數也只比歷史最高值低1%。這對美元是利好消息。
On a trade-weighted basis, the world’s foremost reserve currency has marched 4.5 per cent higher over the past five weeks – gaining with relatively risky assets such as equities as US recovery prospects have brightened – while the euro, sterling and yen have all retreated.
隨着美國經濟復甦前景轉好，作爲世界主要儲備貨幣的美元與股票等風險資產一同上漲，美元貿易加權匯率過去5周來已累計上升4.5%，與此同時，歐元、英鎊和日元全都走低。
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that the US is crawling out of the mud faster than other developed economies,” says Nicholas Pifer, portfolio manager at Columbia Management.
Columbia Management的投資組合經理尼古拉斯·皮弗(Nicholas Pifer)說：“美國步出困境的速度比其他發達經濟體更快，這一點已越來越明顯。”
This relative US outperformance is restoring the role of interest rates to foreign exchange markets. Put simply, the rise in the dollar is attracting more foreign investors wanting to own US assets that generate additional currency gain. Even as the Federal Reserve has been buying heavily US Treasury bonds under its quantitative easing programme – which should send bond prices higher and yields lower – yields have been rising against those of German Bunds and Japanese government bonds, boosting the dollar. 美國經濟相對較好的表現逐漸恢復了利率對外匯市場的作用。簡言之，美元走強正吸引更多外國投資者持有美國資產，以獲取額外的匯率收益。 恆星Shaun.
“The best explanation for this latest leg up in the dollar is growth differentials mediated by interest rate differentials,” says Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
即使美聯儲一直在通過量化寬鬆計劃大量購買美國國債（此舉按說會推高美國國債價格、拉低其收益率），美國國債收益率相對德國和日本國債也一直在升高，這對美元具有提振作用。
Alan Ruskin, global head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank, says: “We are getting back to a traditional cycle where the US is at the forefront of a recovery.”
布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球外匯策略主管馬克·錢德勒(Marc Chandler)說：“關於最近美元走強的原因，最好的解釋是，這是增長速度差異與利率差異共同作用的結果。”
US 10-year yields have risen to their highest premium since August 2011 versus much lower Japanese yields. German two-year yields sit an average of 18 basis points below their US benchmark, the largest divergence since early January, says Mr Chandler.
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)全球外匯策略主管艾倫·拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)說：“我們正迴歸傳統週期，美國重新成爲經濟復甦的領頭羊。”
Some warn that this divergence in bond yields may not last. If so, the recent burst of dollar strength could prove temporary. Jose Wynne, head of global FX strategy at Barclays, says investors looking for a firmer signal of sustained dollar strength should wait for it to rally against a broader pool of currencies, including those of emerging nations.
美國10年期國債收益率走高，而日本10年期國債收益率則大幅下跌，二者息差已擴大到2011年8月以來的最高值。德國兩年期國債收益率平均比美國兩年期國債收益率低18個基點，錢德勒表示，目前兩者息差處於1月初以來最高水平。
There are historical clues to further gains. The last two big periods of dollar ascendancy occurred in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. Those bull runs were marked by a starting point where the dollar was cheaply valued against the backdrop of an improving domestic economy and rising interest rates.
有人警告稱，債券收益率的這種差異可能不會持久。如果是這樣的話，美元最近的強勢或只是暫時現象。巴克萊(Barclays)全球外匯策略主管喬斯·溫(Jose Wynne)表示，投資者如果希望看到更明確的美元持續走強信號，應該等待美元對更多種貨幣（包括新興國家的貨幣）走高。
The dollar index is currently a third below its 2001 peak.
從歷史情況來看，美元應該會繼續上漲。美元上兩輪大牛市行情發生在上世紀80年代早期和90年代中期。那兩波行情開始時，都正值美國國內經濟好轉、利率上升，美元正是在這種背景下遭到低估。
Much will ride on whether the Fed continues buying bonds, and for how long. Much of the move so far may be anticipation of an end to QE.
目前，美元指數比2001年時的峯值低三分之一。
“The fact the dollar index is moving higher with risk assets illustrates that the market is pricing in a new phase of the US dollar rallying on strong data, ultimately facilitating a move to higher yields as the Fed becomes more confident that the lags behind in policy have effectively already delivered ‘escape velocity’,” says Richard Gilhooly, strategist at TD Securities.
美元后市是否會繼續走強，一定程度上將取決於美聯儲是否會繼續購買美國國債，以及購買活動持續多長時間。從迄今情況來看，人們可能預期量化寬鬆將告一段落。
Not all are convinced by such an outcome, however. Tad Rivelle, chief investment officer of fixed income at TCW, says the dollar bounce is likely to fade as QE fails to deliver a sustained US recovery. “The more likely scenario is a stagflationary outcome and I’m not a fan of the dollar longer term.”
道明證券(TD Securities)策略師理查德·吉爾胡利(Richard Gilhooly)說：“美元指數隨風險資產一同上漲，說明市場現在預期美元進入了憑藉強勁數據走強的新階段，並據此進行操作，進而在美聯儲更加確信政策滯後效應已有效地使經濟產生‘逃逸速度’的情況下，推動美國國債收益率上漲。”
Long-term dollar bulls cite another factor: US energy self-sufficiency.
然而，並不是所有人都相信這種結果。TCW固定收益業務首席投資官塔德·裏韋爾(Tad Revelle)表示，如果量化寬鬆未能推動美國經濟進入持續復甦軌道，那麼此次美元反彈可能後繼乏力。裏韋爾說：“更大的可能性是出現滯漲，我不看好美元的中長期走勢。”
Just as the Reagan tax cuts and military spending boosted the US economy and dollar in the early 1980s and the dotcom boom and higher productivity fuelled faster growth in the mid-to-late-1990s, some analysts argue the shale gas revolution, by reducing foreign energy imports, will transform America’s manufacturing prospects.
看好美元長期走勢的人士提到了另一個理由：美國能源現在能夠自給自足。
“The shale revolution looks like being a positive supply shock for the US dollar,” says Mr Pifer. “From a foreign perspective, dollar assets become more attractive.”
一些分析師指出，上世紀80年代早期，里根減稅和增加軍事開支的舉措曾提振美國經濟和美元，上世紀90年代中晚期，網絡熱潮和生產力提高也曾推動美國經濟增長率提高，同樣，如今的頁岩氣革命也將通過降低能源進口，令美國製造業的前景煥然一新。 皮弗說：“頁岩氣革命似乎是一場利好美元的供給衝擊(supply shock)。從外國人的角度來看，這提高了美元資產的吸引力。”
