關注社會:全球市場即將迎來多事之秋

Markets have been surprisingly quiet ahead of an autumn that looks set to be full of dramatic economic, financial and political events.

即將到來的秋天註定會迎來一系列戲劇性的經濟、金融和政治事件。而在此之前，市場一直出奇的平靜。

Money managers say the recent quiet masks uncertainty as they position their portfolios to benefit from a potential rally but also to withstand shocks ranging from upheaval in Europe to further easing by central banks to leadership changes in the worlds' two biggest economies.

投資經理們表示，市場近期的平靜掩蓋了不確定性。投資經理調整了投資組合，以期從市場可能出現的反彈中獲利，同時也準備好接受來自各種事件的衝擊，這其中包括歐洲的動盪形勢，全球央行推出進一步寬鬆政策，以及全球兩大經濟體的領導人更迭。

'We are certainly not ignoring the possibility of downside in the markets,' said Tahnoon Pasha, Asia chief executive officer for equities and fixed income at Aviva Investors in Singapore, where the company manages assets worth just under $6 billion.

英傑華投資集團(Aviva Investors)駐新加坡負責股票和固定收益的亞洲區首席執行長帕沙(Tahnoon Pasha)說：我們當然沒有忽略市場出現下跌的可能。英傑華在新加坡管理的資產規模接近60億美元。

A speech Friday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, Wyo., in some ways kicked off the new season. Mr. Bernanke defended the Fed's monetary policies and raised hopes for more stimulus, pushing up U.S. stocks, gold, oil and prices of 10-year U.S. Treasurys.

美國聯邦儲備委員會主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)上週五在懷俄明州傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole)的講話從某種意義上說拉開了市場“新賽季”的帷幕。貝南克在講話中捍衛了美聯儲的貨幣政策，令市場相信美聯儲可能推出更多刺激政策。這一信號推升了美國股市、金價、油價以及10年期美國國債的價格。

Mr. Bernanke's comments are just a foretaste of central bankers' likely rocking of markets. When it comes to Europe, investors are waiting to see whether European Central Bank President Mario Draghi can live up to his promise to do 'whatever it takes' to save the euro.

貝南克的講話只是一個信號，它預示着全球央行官員可能推出影響市場的重大舉措。歐洲的情況是，投資者還在等待觀望，他們想看看歐洲央行(European Central Bank)行長德拉吉(Mario Draghi)是否能兌現其此前做出的“不惜一切代價”拯救歐元的承諾。

Some investors took Saturday's news out of China that manufacturing had contracted in August─with the official purchasing-managers index falling to its lowest level in nine months─as an indication that Beijing will boost what has so far been relatively modest stimulus.

在部分投資者看來，上週六傳出的有關中國8月製造業活動收縮的消息可能預示着，中國政府將加強迄今爲止相對溫和的刺激政策。上週六公佈的中國8月官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)降至九個月來的最低點。

This week marks the traditional start of autumn in the U.S. and Europe, when investors return from summer holidays and start trading with an eye toward their year-end results. Volumes are expected to pick up─as, potentially, is volatility.

本週在傳統上標誌着美國和歐洲秋季的開始。每當這個時候，投資者結束暑期休假開始交易，他們的目光緊盯着年終業績。預計交易量將回升，同時波動性也可能加大。

With the MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index up 9.7% from the 2012 lows that it reached on June 4, investors are looking to see whether the recent gains are sustainable. There is a growing belief that if policy makers fail to meet market expectations, there could be another selloff.

摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（不含日本）指數(MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index)從今年6月4日創下的年中低點至今上漲9.7%。投資者正在觀望最近這波上漲是否能夠持續。有越來越多的人認爲，如果政策制定者未能滿足市場預期，可能會出現另一輪拋售。

In the near term, the news will flow most heavily from Europe, with an ECB policy meeting on Thursday that may produce more clarity on a bond-buying program, followed by a ruling next week by the German Constitutional Court on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism.

在短期內，影響市場的重大消息將主要來自歐洲。本週四召開的歐洲央行政策會議可能會向外界更加清晰地傳遞有關債券購買計劃的信息。下週，德國憲法法院將對歐洲穩定機制(European Stability Mechanism)的合法性做出裁決。

After years of waiting on European developments, investors aren't convinced that a definitive solution is around the corner.

在關注歐洲的進展長達數年之後，投資者如今不再相信一份明確的解決方案指日可待。

'Not that I expect a wholehearted policy response, but I expect greater transparency in terms of what will unfold,' said Tim Schroeders, a fund manager at Pengana Capital in Melbourne, which manages about $1 billion.

Pengana Capital公司駐墨爾本的基金經理施洛德斯(Tim Schroeders)說：我並不是期待一個完整的政策迴應，我期待的是增加有關未來局勢的透明度。這家公司管理着大約10億美元資產。

Mr. Schroeders said that while he is maintaining his exposure to some risky assets, he is sticking with easily traded investments and staying away from less-liquid small-cap stocks as he anticipates uncertainty and volatility will remain high for the rest of the year.

施洛德斯說，儘管他仍保持着對一些高風險資產的敞口，但他現在堅持投資於可以輕鬆交易的投資產品，遠離流動性較差的小型股，因爲他預計今年餘下時間市場的不確定性和波動性仍然會很高。

James White, senior analyst at First State Investments in Sydney, which manages $148.8 billion in assets, said, 'What we will probably get out of September is more confirmation that Europe is able to delay any dramatic restructuring, which will probably be positive for markets in the short term.'

首域投資(First State Investments)駐悉尼的高級分析師懷特(James White)說，9月份的情形可能會讓我們更加確信，歐洲能夠推遲任何重大的重組措施，從短期來看這對市場可能是積極的。首域投資管理着1,488億美元的資產。

Investors are also closely watching the leadership transition in China and the presidential election in the U.S., both of which could lead to more stimulus measures in those economies.

投資者正在密切關注中國的領導層換屆和美國的總統大選，這兩件事都可能爲這兩大經濟體帶來更多刺激性措施。

The underlying dynamics are very different for the recent rally than for the one at the beginning of the year, when the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index climbed 22% from late November to the end of February, according to research by HSBC, which holds that the current rally looks 'weaker' than the last.

最近這次反彈的內在原因與年初的那次反彈有很大不同，根據匯豐控股(HSBC)的研究，2月末，摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（不含日本）指數較去年11月末上漲了22%。匯豐控股認爲，如今的反彈看起來比上一次更加脆弱。

That earlier rally, the bank says, was driven largely by the ECB's unexpected announcement of its so-called long-term refinancing operation, in which European banks were able to borrow at low interest rates, which eased pressure on the banks. In the recent rally, the markets have reacted not to central-bank action, but rather in anticipation that something will happen. And this rally is taking place in a more difficult environment of earnings downgrades and falling rather than rising trading volumes.

匯豐控股說，早些時候的反彈主要是因爲歐洲央行意外宣佈了所謂的長期再融資操作，這一操作使歐洲的銀行可以以較低的利率借款，從而減輕了銀行的壓力。在最近的反彈中，市場並不是對央行的行動做出反應，只是人們預計會有事情發生。這次反彈所處的環境更加艱難，收益預期被下調，成交量不升反降。

Cracks are already showing; the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index has lost 2.8% since Aug. 23, as optimism about central-bank action has waned due to a lack of supportive news.

目前已經顯現出下跌的跡象。8月23日以來，摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（不含日本）指數下跌了2.8%，由於缺乏支持性的報道，人們對央行行動的樂觀態度已經消退。

Yet valuations remain cheap in Asia, with the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5, compared with a 15-year historical average of 12.7.

不過，亞洲股市的估值仍然很低，摩根士丹利資本國際亞洲（不含日本）指數的預期市盈率是10.5倍，相比之下15年的歷史平均值爲12.7倍。

'Over a 24-month view, equities are a hugely attractive asset class,' said Aviva's Mr. Pasha, pointing to 'incredibly compelling' valuations and strong corporate balance sheets. 'The real issue is not so much where we will be in 24 months from now, but the critical path that takes us there.'

英傑華的帕沙說，從24個月的數據來看，股票目前是一種非常有吸引力的資產。他給出的理由是估值十分具有吸引力，且公司的資產負債狀況表現強勁。他說，真正的問題不是24個月後市場會達到一個什麼樣的水平，而是以何種途徑到達那裏。