全球化已遭遇瓶頸 並且在某些領域發生了逆轉

Has the tide of globalisation turned? This is a vitally important question.

全球化進程轉向了嗎？這是一個極其重要的問題。

The answer is closely connected to the state of the world economy and the west’s politics.

答案與全球經濟和西方政治狀況密切相關。

Migration raises quite specific issues.

移民提出一些非常特殊的問題。

The era of globalisation was not accompanied by a general commitment to liberalising flows of people.

各國並未在全球化時代普遍承諾實現人員自由流動。

So I will focus here on trade and capital flows.

因此，我這裏將主要談談貿易和資本流動。

The evidence in these areas seems quite clear.

這些領域的證據似乎非常清晰。

Globalisation has reached a plateau and, in some areas, is in reverse.

全球化已遭遇瓶頸，並且在某些領域發生了逆轉。

An analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that ratios of world trade to output have been flat since 2008, making this the longest period of such stagnation since the second world war.

華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的分析認爲，自2008年以來世界貿易與產值的比例幾乎沒有發生變化，從而成爲自二戰以來此類停滯持續時間最長的一段時期。

According to Global Trade Alert, even the volume of world trade stagnated between January 2015 and March 2016, though the world economy continued to grow.

據全球貿易預警組織(Global Trade Alert)表示，全球貿易規模甚至在2015年1月至2016年3月期間也出現了停滯，儘管全球經濟繼續增長。

The stock of cross-border financial assets peaked at 57 per cent of global output in 2007, falling to 36 per cent by 2015.

跨境金融資產存量與全球產值的比例在2007年達到57%的峯值，到2015年降至36%。

Finally, inflows of foreign direct investment have remained well below the 3.3 per cent of world output attained in 2007, though the stock continues to rise, albeit slowly, relative to output.

最後，外商直接投資(fdi)流入與全球產值比例依然遠低於2007年的3.3%，儘管該比例還在緩慢增長。

Thus, the impetus towards further economic integration has stalled and in some respects gone into reverse.

因此，進一步經濟一體化的動力停滯，甚至在某些方面還發生了逆轉。

Globalisation is no longer driving world growth.

全球化不再推動世界增長。

If this process is indeed coming to an end, or even going into reverse, it would not be the first time since the industrial revolution, in the early 19th century.

如果全球化進程真的趨於結束、乃至發生逆轉，這將不是自19世紀初工業革命以來的首次。

Another period of globalisation, in an era of empires, occurred in the late 19th century.

另一次全球化發生在19世紀末的帝國時代。

The first world war ended this and the Great Depression destroyed it.

第一次世界大戰讓那次全球化進程停止，大蕭條(Great Depression)則完全摧毀了它。

A principal focus of US economic and foreign policy after 1945 was to recreate the global economy, but this time among sovereign states and guided by international economic institutions.

美國經濟和外交政策在1945年之後主要致力於重新構建全球經濟，但此次全球化是主權國家之間開展的，並受到國際經濟組織的指導。

If Donald Trump, who has embraced protectionism and denigrated global institutions, were to be elected president in November, it would be a repudiation of a central thrust of postwar US policy.

如果今年11月支持保護主義並詆譭全球機構的唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當選爲美國總統，戰後的美國政策核心將會遭到否定。

Given the historical record and the current politics of trade, notably in the US, it is natural to ask whether the same could happen to the more recent era of globalisation.

鑑於歷史記錄以及當前圍繞貿易的政治紛爭（尤其是在美國），人們自然會問，如今的這個全球化時代是否會重蹈覆轍。

That requires us to understand the drivers.

這需要我們理解背後的驅動因素。

Part of the reason for the slowdown is that many opportunities are, if not exhausted, radically diminished.

全球化步伐放緩的部分原因在於，許多機遇即便不是完全消失，也是急劇減少。

When, for example, the production of essentially all labour-intensive manufactures has moved out of the rich countries, the growth of trade in such products must fall.

例如，當基本上所有的勞動密集型製造商都將生產搬離富裕國家的時候，此類產品的貿易增長必定下降。

Similarly, when the biggest investment boom in the history of the world, that in China, slows, so too must the demand for many commodities.

同樣，當全球歷史上最大的投資熱潮（發生在中國）放緩的時候，許多大宗商品的需求也必定下降。

That will affect both their prices and their quantities.

這將會影響它們的價格和數量。

Again, the end of once-in-a-lifetime global credit boom is sure to lead to a decline in the cross-border holdings of financial assets.

還有，一生一遇的全球信貸熱潮的結束，當然會導致跨境金融資產持有量的下降。

Finally, after decades of FDI, a host of companies with something to gain from it will have taken their opportunity and succeeded or, in important cases, failed.

最後，在數十年的外商直接投資之後，可從中受益的許多公司應該已經抓住機遇並取得成功了或者（在某些重要情況下）失敗了。

Yet this is not all there is to this story.

然而，這並不是故事的全部。

Trade liberalisation has stalled and one can see a steady rise in protectionist measures.

貿易自由化已經停滯，人們可以看到保護主義舉措日益增多。

The financial crisis brought with it regulatory measures, many of which are bound to slow cross-border financial flows.

此次金融危機催生了監管舉措，其中許多舉措肯定會減緩跨境資金流動。

The rise of xenophobic sentiment and the slowdown in trade are both likely to reduce the growth of FDI.

排外情緒上升和貿易放緩全都可能減緩外商直接投資的增長。

In brief, policy is less supportive.

簡言之，政策支持度下降。

The politics are becoming even less so.

政治方面的支持度下降得更厲害。

Again, the US is the central part of the story.

美國再次處於故事核心。

Mr Trump is much the most protectionist candidate for US president since the 1930s.

特朗普是上世紀30年代以來最具保護主義色彩的美國總統候選人。

But, revealingly, Hillary Clinton, an architect of the US pivot to Asia has turned against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, of which she was once a keen supporter.

但頗能說明問題的是，制定美國重返亞洲戰略的希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)開始反對《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)。

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, being negotiated between the US and the EU, is now in deep trouble.

美國和歐盟正在談判的《跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴關係協定》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP)現在深陷困境。

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations is moribund.

多哈回合的多邊貿易談判奄奄一息。

Above all, important segments of the western public no longer believes increased trade benefits them.

最重要的是，西方民衆中的一些重要羣體不再相信增加貿易會讓他們受益。

Evidence on relative real incomes and adjustment to rising imports provides some support for such scepticism.

相對實際收入和對進口日益增長的適應方面的證據，爲此類懷疑提供了一些支持。

Thus, globalisation has at best stalled.

因此，全球化往好裏說也是出現了停滯。

Could it even go into reverse? Yes.

它可能會發生逆轉嗎？答案是肯定的。

Globalisation requires peace among the great powers.

全球化需要大國之間保持和平。

Some would also argue it requires a hegemonic power: the UK before 1914 and the US after 1945.

一些人還會說，全球化需要一個霸權國家：1914年前的英國和1945年後的美國。

At a time of poor economic performance in leading high-income countries, rising inequality and big shifts in the balance of global power, another collapse must be a possibility.

在主要高收入國家經濟表現疲弱、不平等加劇以及全球力量平衡發生重大轉變之際，全球化完全有可能再次崩潰。

Consider the impact of any fighting between the US and China over the South China Sea, though such a calamity would be terrifying for far more than its narrow economic effects.

想想假如美中圍繞南中國海發生任何衝突會帶來什麼影響吧，儘管那樣的災難性事件讓人不寒而慄之處將遠不止是它對經濟領域的影響。

Does globalisation’s stalling matter? Yes.

全球化停滯重要嗎？答案是肯定的。

The era of globalisation has seen the first fall in global inequality of household incomes since the early 19th century.

在全球化時代，全球家庭收入不平等出現了自19世紀初以來的首次下降。

Between 1980 and 2015, average global real income rose by 120 per cent.

從1980年到2015年，全球平均實際收入增長了120%。

The opportunities afforded by globalisation are vital.

全球化提供的機遇非常重要。

Our future cannot lie in closing ourselves off from one another.

彼此封閉起來不可能有未來。

The failure — a profound one — lies in not ensuring that gains were more equally shared, notably within high-income economies.

全球化的（重大）錯誤在於沒有確保更平等地分享益處，尤其是在高收入經濟體內部。

Equally dismal was the failure to cushion those adversely affected.

同樣令人遺憾的是，全球化未能保護那些遭受不利影響的人羣、努力減輕他們所受的衝擊。

But we cannot stop economic change.

但我們無法讓經濟變化停止。

Moreover, the impact on jobs and wages of rising productivity and new technologies has far exceeded that of rising imports.

此外，生產率增長和新技術對就業和薪資的影響，遠遠超過進口增長的影響。

Globalisation must not be made a scapegoat for all our ills.

我們不能把所有的問題都怪到全球化頭上。

Yet it has now stalled, as have the policies driving it.

然而，如今全球化已經停滯，驅動全球化的政策同樣如此。

It might reverse.

它還可能發生逆轉。

Yet even a stalling would slow economic progress and reduce opportunities for the world’s poor.

全球化即便只是停滯，也會讓經濟進步變慢，並減少全球窮人的機遇。

Pushing globalisation forward requires different domestic and external policies from those of the past.

推動全球化前進需要不同以往的國內和外部政策。

Globalisation’s future depends on better management.

全球化的未來取決於管理的改善。

Will that happen? Alas, I am not optimistic.

這種改善可能實現嗎？反正我不樂觀。