卡斯特羅兄弟宣佈接班人人選

EVER since Raúl Castro replaced his ailing brother, Fidel, as Cuba’s president in 2008, he has made clear that his overriding aim is to organise an orderly political and economic transition to ensure that the ruling Communist Party remains in power after both men die. Progress towards that goal has been painstakingly slow, and sometimes crablike. But another step was taken at the opening of a newly installed National Assembly on February 24th, when Raúl began a second presidential term. Not only did he repeat that it would be his last. He also hailed the appointment as first vice-president of Miguel Díaz- Canel, a former higher-education minister, saying this represented “a defining step in the configuration of the country’s future leadership”.

勞爾·卡斯特羅（Raúl Castro）於2008年接替患病的哥哥菲德爾·卡斯特羅（Fidel），成爲古巴總統。自那之後，他就明確表明自己任上的頭等大事，便是組織古巴有序地進行政治、經濟過渡，以保證在他們兩兄弟逝世之後，現有執政黨（共產黨）仍能保持其領導地位。然而相關進展卻十分艱難、速度緩慢，有的時候發展原地踏步，堪比蟹行。但就在2月24日新一屆國民大會開幕之際、勞爾開始其第二任期之時，這一過渡又有了新的進展。他不僅重申了這將是他的最後一屆總統任期，還向被任命爲副總統的前高等教育部長米格爾·迪亞斯-卡內爾（Miguel Díaz- Canel）表示祝賀，稱這一任命代表着“國家未來領導層格局中決定性的一步”。

“Who’s he?” was how one Havana resident greeted the news. Mr Díaz-Canel may not be exactly a household name in Cuba but he has been tipped for the top for several years. He has stood in for Raúl on a couple of recent foreign visits. Aged 52, his elevation means that the Castros, both of whom are in their 80s, are at last passing the baton to a generation born after the 1959 revolution. (Fidel gave a short speech at the assembly, in a rare public appearance which could be read as giving his blessing to the new appointment.)

“這位新副總統是誰？”聽到這一消息之後，一位哈瓦那（Havana）市民不禁如此問道。準確來說，迪亞斯-卡內爾在古巴可能並沒有那麼家喻戶曉，但最近幾年來人們紛紛猜測他可能會被提拔爲高層領導。最近，他代替勞爾進行了一些外事訪問。米格爾·迪亞斯今年52歲，他的提升意味着，已是耄耋之年的卡斯特羅兄弟，終於將權利交接棒遞給了1959年革命後出生的一代人（菲德爾罕見地出席了當天大會，並做了簡短講話，這可以被看作是他對米格爾·迪亞斯晉升的祝福）。

Mr Díaz-Canel is an electrical engineer who spent 15 years as a provincial party secretary before becoming a minister and, last year, vice-president of the Council of Ministers. He is unexpressive in public, but is said to be affable and accessible, with a quick wit and sharp mind. Until fairly recently he wore his hair long, another reminder of the fact that he is a child of the 1960s, not the 1930s. He is known to be a fan of the Beatles, an enthusiasm once frowned upon by the regime.

迪亞斯-卡內爾是一名電子工程師，曾擔任省委書記達15年，隨後成爲一名部長，最後去年晉升爲部長委員會副總統。他在公共場合以冷靜形象示人，但是據說才思敏捷，並且與人和善。直到最近之前，他都留着一頭長髮，這再一次提醒我們他是20世紀60年代（而非30年代）後出生的一代人。他對披頭士的熱愛衆所周知，儘管古巴政府曾一度不太滿意這點。

Whereas Fidel liked to surround himself with young acolytes, Raúl has long shown that he values the practical experience of provincial party officials, to whom he has devolved some powers. Another rising star, Mercedes López Acea, the Havana party secretary, was promoted to the rank of vice-president as well.

儘管菲德爾喜歡身邊圍繞着年輕的下屬，長期以來，勞爾都不掩飾自己對省委官員實踐經驗的重視，並將權力下放給他們。另一位政治新星——哈瓦那黨委書記梅賽德斯·洛佩斯（Mercedes López Acea）也被提升爲副總統。

As higher-education minister Mr Díaz-Canel expanded a scheme under which Cubans taught students from Venezuela, Cuba’s chief benefactor. He forged close ties with Venezuela’s leaders, including Nicolás Maduro, the de facto president. With Mr Chávez seemingly dying of cancer, it is vital for Cuba’s leaders that Mr Maduro should succeed him and continue to provide subsidised oil.

身爲高等教育部長，迪亞斯-卡內爾拓展了一個讓委內瑞拉（古巴主要捐助國）學生在古巴接受教育的計劃，他與現在實際負責總統職責的尼古拉斯·馬杜羅（Nicolás Maduro）等委內瑞拉領導人保持親密關係。現任總統查韋斯（Chávez）似乎要被癌症奪去生命，因此，馬杜羅繼任委內瑞拉總統並繼續向古巴提供補貼石油，對於古巴領導人來說十分重要。

Raúl once praised Mr Díaz-Canel for his “ideological firmness”. The new man’s private views are unclear. In the 1990s he was linked to a group of communist reformers that surrounded the then foreign minister, Roberto Robaina, who openly argued for economic liberalisation in Cuba.

勞爾曾經讚揚迪亞斯-卡內爾有“堅定的意識形態”，不過這位政壇新星的個人觀點尚不明晰。上個世紀90年代，他與一個古共改革派關係密切，該組織核心人物羅伯託·羅瓦伊納（Roberto Robaina）時任外交部長，他曾公開支持古巴經濟開放。

Raúl Castro has allowed Cubans to buy cars and homes, to lease farmland and to set up small businesses. Last year he scrapped curbs on foreign travel. As a result, this month Yoani Sánchez, a blogger and opponent of the regime, has been able to visit Brazil—though she has faced protests organised by the Cuban Embassy in Brasília and members of Brazil’s ruling Workers’ Party.

勞爾·卡斯特羅允許古巴人民購買汽車和住房，允許農田租借，支持小型企業發展。去年，他還放寬了國人出國旅遊的種種限制。因此，政權的反對者——微博用戶Yoani Sánchez本月得以到巴西旅遊，儘管她曾受到古巴駐巴西利亞大使館和巴西執政黨（工黨）成員所提出的抗議。

There are signs that Raúl is running out of reformist steam. His tone in his speech to the assembly seemed at times almost resigned. “I was not chosen to be president to restore capitalism to Cuba” he stressed (Mr Díaz-Canel nodded in agreement). He announced no new economic reforms. It will be Mr Díaz-Canel’s job to get to grips with the “issues of greater scope, complexity and depth” that Raúl said the government was grappling with. First among these is allowing private wholesale markets.

有跡象表明，勞爾身上的改革主義色彩越來越淡。他在大會上的發言腔調有時聽上去似乎對現狀聽之任之。“古巴人民不是爲了恢復資本主義才選我做總統。”他強調說（迪亞斯-卡內爾點頭表示同意）。他沒有宣佈新的經濟改革措施。勞爾曾經說過政府正着力解決的“廣度、複雜程度和深度等更加宏偉的事情”，將會在迪亞斯-卡內爾任上得到認真對待。其中首當其衝的便是允許私有批發市場的發展。

Various putative dauphins were raised up by Fidel only to fall from grace, accused of corruption or of excessive ambition. One of them was Mr Robaina, sacked in 1999. He now spends his days painting and running a restaurant in Miramar, an elegant district of Havana. Mr Díaz-Canel is presumably aware of the risks involved in his elevation. But this time it looks as if the chosen successor may be the one who actually succeeds.

菲德爾培養了許多候選接班人，因爲腐敗問題或者野心過大，都紛紛落馬，其中之一便是1999年被撤職的羅瓦伊納（Robaina）【注】，他現在就成天畫畫東西、經營一家米拉瑪（位於哈瓦那的一個品位高的地區）的餐館。迪亞斯-卡內爾大概對他本人升職所蘊含的風險有所瞭解，但這一次挑選出來的接班人可能真的就是接班人了。