讓亞洲引領全球貿易

Rising protectionist sentiment in the West and a dramatic decline in global trade since 2011 have led many to speculate that Asia’s era of export-led growth will end soon. This speculation is overdone. While the slowdown in trade does demand responses, Asia is well positioned to be a bulwark against protectionism. In fact, it can lead global trade in the years to come.

西方的保護主義情緒不斷上升，加上自2011年以來全球貿易大幅下降，導致許多人猜測，亞洲出口導向型增長的時代將很快結束。這個猜測言過其實了。雖然貿易放緩需要作出迴應，但亞洲處於有利地位，能夠成爲抵制保護主義的堡壘。事實上，亞洲可以在未來多年引領全球貿易。

But, getting the responses right will require a clear understanding of the causes. Policy makers need to ask first what explains the export slowdown, and what this means for Asian economies. The story starts with the great recession in 2008, which left advanced countries stuck in low growth, low demand environments that have weighed heavily on Asia’s export-dominated economies.

但是，做出正確迴應將需要清楚地瞭解貿易放緩的原因。政策制定者需要首先問一下，什麼因素解釋了出口增長放緩，以及這對亞洲經濟體意味着什麼？事情始於2008年的大衰退，那場衰退導致發達國家陷入低增長、低需求的環境，嚴重拖累了亞洲的出口主導型經濟體。

In recent years, the problems of developed world economies have become entangled with China’s structural transformation, which has meant slower growth for Asia’s largest economy. Two trends accompanying China’s structural transformation have implications for Asian trade. One is its shift away from an export and investment-driven growth model toward domestic consumption and services. The other is China’s moving up the global value chain as wages rise.

近年來，發達經濟體的問題又與中國的結構轉型結合在一起，後者已導致亞洲最大經濟體增長放緩。伴隨中國結構轉型的兩個趨勢對亞洲貿易產生影響。一是中國增長模式從出口和投資驅動轉向國內消費和服務驅動。另一個是隨着工資的上漲，中國正向全球價值鏈(GVC)的高端攀升。

These trends have reduced demand for imports from the rest of Asia. Fueled by expanding middle class consumers, China continues to import consumables from across Asia. But, imports of capital goods and raw materials have declined. Accordingly, the annual average growth of China’s total imports from developing Asia fell from 18.2 per cent in 2001-2010 to 4.7 per cent in 2011-2015.

這些趨勢減少了中國對亞洲其他國家的進口需求。在日益擴大的中產階層消費者的推動下，中國繼續從亞洲各經濟體進口消費品。但是，資本貨物和原材料的進口減少了。相應地，中國從亞洲發展中國家的總進口的年均增長率由2001至2010年的18.2%，降到了2011至2015年的4.7%。

They have also reduced trade in parts and components, which contain higher value addition than simply assembling products. The ratio of China’s intermediate goods imports to manufactured exports fell from 63 per cent to about 38 per cent between 2000 and 2015.

這些趨勢還減少了零部件的貿易，零部件相比簡單裝配產品具有更高的附加值。從2000到2015年，中國中間產品進口與製成品出口之比從63%降至約38%。

The good news is that these factors are either temporary, such as weak import demand from advanced markets, or can be overcome through smart policymaking that takes advantage of the region’s strengths.

好消息是，這些因素要麼是暫時的——比如說發達市場的進口需求疲軟——要麼是可以通過發揮地區優勢的明智政策來克服的。

Here are three ways Asia can take the lead in global trade.

亞洲可以通過三條途徑引領全球貿易。

First, China’s economic rebalancing and moving up global value chains (GVCs) is opening up new trading opportunities for China itself. China’s production data confirm that the country is following the model of higher value added and building innovation capability seen first in Japan and subsequently in South Korea.

首先，中國的經濟再平衡和在全球價值鏈中向高端攀升，爲中國本身開啓了新的貿易機會。中國的生產數據證實，該國正在追隨首先在日本、後來在韓國見到的那種提高附加值和打造創新能力的模式。

This implies the development of more technologically sophisticated regional value chains and related services in East Asia that can propel a new phase of regional and global trade growth. The spread of robotics, advances in miniaturisation, developments in internet connectivity, process-centered research and development, and various organisational innovations are increasingly likely to feature in GVCs in this new phase of trade growth.

這暗示着，在東亞發展技術含量更高的區域價值鏈及相關服務，可以推動區域乃至全球貿易進入一個新的增長階段。在這個新的貿易增長階段，機器人的普及、微型化的進展、互聯網連接的發展、以流程爲中心的研發以及各種組織創新，越來越有可能在全球價值鏈上發揮重要作用。

Second, many developing economies are well positioned to benefit from China’s rebalancing. Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) face the prospect of replacing China in labor-intensive segments of GVCs, from clothing to consumer electronics. These Asian economies are increasingly open to export-oriented foreign direct investment and offer relatively low wages with reasonably good labor productivity.

其次，許多發展中經濟體處於受益於中國再平衡的有利地位。從服裝到消費電子產品，孟加拉國、印度、越南以及東盟(ASEAN)其他成員國面臨着在全球價值鏈的勞動密集型環節取代中國的前景。這些亞洲經濟體對出口導向的外商直接投資(FDI)越來越開放，並提供相對低廉的工資和相當高的勞動生產率。

Third, trade in services offers a new opportunity for many middle income countries in the region. Services constitute the largest sector in most economies in developing Asia, but they are rarely traded because of trade restrictions, skills gaps, and problems with internet connectivity.

第三，服務貿易爲亞洲許多中等收入國家提供了新機遇。服務業是亞洲多數發展中經濟體內最大的行業，但由於貿易限制、技能差距和互聯網連接問題，目前服務貿易額很低。

Digital trade, professional and financial services, and GVC-related services are areas with potential for trade growth. Both China and India are likely to further expand their roles as exporters and importers of services. Asean and South Asian economies have opportunities to further develop tourism, including from markets in other regional economies, and other commercial services exports.

數字化貿易、專業及金融服務以及全球價值鏈相關服務是具有貿易增長潛力的領域。中國和印度都有可能進一步擴大它們作爲服務出口國和進口國的角色。東盟和南亞經濟體有機會進一步發展旅遊業——包括針對其他區域經濟體的市場——和其他商務服務的出口。

To capitalise on these opportunities, it is important that Asian countries continue to implement structural reform to upgrade skills, enhance finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, invest in seaports and other trade-related and digital infrastructure and reduce behind-the-border barriers such as cumbersome local government regulations and labor laws.

爲了利用這些機會，重要的是亞洲國家要繼續實施結構改革以升級技能，爲中小企業拓寬融資渠道，投資海港和其他與貿易有關的、數字化的基礎設施，並減少境內障礙，比如繁瑣的地方政府法規和勞動法律。

Policy makers should resist protectionist pressures. Instead, they should liberalize goods and services trade by reducing import tariffs where possible and instituting better surveillance of non-tariff measures. The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, which 19 economies in developing Asia have ratified to date, promises to reduce the region’s trade costs.

政策制定者應該抵制保護主義壓力。相反，他們應該通過儘可能降低進口關稅並加強監督非關稅措施，實現商品和服務貿易的自由化。世界貿易組織(WTO)的《貿易便利化協定》(Trade Facilitation Agreement)——迄今已有19個亞洲發展中經濟體批准了該協定——有望降低亞洲的貿易成本。

Large trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership can help generate market access for services and spread good regulatory has benefited greatly from trade in recent years. It should continue to implement the kinds of policies that will make it the leader in global trade.

《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)等大型貿易協定，可以幫助達成服務的市場準入和推廣優良的監管做法。近年亞洲從貿易受益匪淺。亞洲應繼續實施各項明智政策，使其成爲全球貿易的引領者。

Mr. Wignaraja is an adviser in ADB’s Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department. Mr. Zhuang is ADB’s Deputy Chief Economist.

加內山?維格納拉傑是亞開行(ADB)經濟研究與地區合作部顧問，莊巨忠是亞開行副首席經濟學家