香港樓市與港民的心相呼應的起伏波動

It is a rite of passage to gripe – and occasionally gloat – about Hong Kong property prices. Companies setting up in the territory have to accept they will pay some of the highest prices in the world for office space and possibly dole out equally large housing allowances.

抱怨——或偶爾地得意於——香港的房地產價格，是香港人的必修課。在香港開展業務的公司必須接受這樣的現實：它們必須支付世界上數一數二高的辦公室租金，可能還要支付同樣高的住房補貼。

Likewise for retailers. Burberry, the British luxury brand, pays about $1m a month in rent for its store in Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay shopping district. Ralph Lauren is heading to Hollywood Road, traditionally home to purveyors of antiques, memorabilia and general tat rather than expensive US clothing.

零售商也是如此。英國奢侈品牌博柏利(Burberry)在香港銅鑼灣(Causeway Bay)購物區的門店每月租金約爲100萬美元。Ralph Lauren正打算遷往荷里活道(Hollywood Road)，那裏過去是古董商、紀念品商店和普通服飾店聚集的地方，而不是美國奢侈服裝品牌應該出現的地方。

But it is not a uniform picture of sky-high rents, as those who took space during the bleak days of Sars, the infectious disease that swept through the territory in 2003, or the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, can testify.

但香港的租金並非一直高得離譜。2003年傳染病非典(Sars)席捲香港期間，1997-98年亞洲金融危機期間，房地產價格都曾一落千丈，在那時買入房產的人可以證明這一點。

“Hong Kong doesn’t do stable,” says Craig Shute, a senior managing director at CBRE, the real estate services adviser. “It is rare that prices remain in a 10 per cent band on either side.”

“香港樓市一直不穩定，”房地產服務諮詢公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)資深董事總經理施懷德(Craig Shute)說，“價格上下波動幅度均保持在10%以內的情況十分罕見。”

That is testament to the volatility attendant upon a spit of land that effectively has its interest rates set by the US – courtesy of the Hong Kong dollar currency peg – and its demand dictated to a large extent from across the border in mainland China.

此言驗證了彈丸之地香港樓市波動之大。由於香港實行港元盯住美元的聯繫匯率制度，香港的利率實際上由美國設定，而香港的需求很大程度上則受中國內地控制。

Land is in pitifully short supply and government policy on land sales has mostly kept it that way. During times of high inflation, property was seen as a classic hedge.

土地供應嚴重短缺，而政府的賣地政策很大程度上在維持現狀。在高通脹時期，房地產被視爲典型的保值工具。

Car parking spaces have gone for $1.3m, enough to buy a street of houses in parts of England or the US. H&M, the Swedish clothing retailer, shuttered its flagship store leaving its Central District location to Zara, its Spanish rival, to take up the keys and pay double the rent.

停車位的售價已經達到130萬美元，足以在英美一些地方買下一條街的房子。瑞典時裝零售商H&M關閉了位於中環(Central District)的旗艦店，其西班牙競爭對手Zara付雙倍租金租下了原址店面。

And there has been a veritable exodus of banks and businesses across the water to Kowloon, once viewed as a hinterland by many expat bankers.

也確實有不少銀行和企業逃離香港島，遷往對岸的九龍(Kowloon)——這個一度被許多外派至香港的銀行家視爲鄉下的地方。

Recently, however, clouds have been appearing on the horizon. In February, the government took steps to cool the market, doubling stamp duty on properties worth more than HK$2m ($258,000) and introducing a lower duty on cheaper homes.

但最近，烏雲開始籠罩地平線。今年2月，香港政府採取了一些旨在讓樓市降溫的措施，對超過2000萬港元（合258萬美元）的豪宅徵收“雙倍印花稅”，並降低了普通住房的稅率。

At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory’s de facto central bank, cut the maximum loan-to-value ratio to 40 per cent for commercial and industrial spaces and introduced a similar ratio for parking spaces, the latest subject of speculative investment.

與此同時，香港金管局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)將商業和工業地產的貸款與估值比率(loan-to-value ratio)上限降至40%，並且對最新的投機目標——停車位——的這一比率做出了類似的限制。金管局相當於香港的央行。

More recently, developers of big projects have been offering rebates and discounts which, in some cases, have served to lop 20 per cent off the price – although this “teaser” strategy has helped them to sell subsequent batches at higher prices. “Hong Kong seems to be at a crossroads,” says Mr Shute. “There are a lot of opinions on what will happen to pricing over the next 12 months or so.”

大型項目的開發商近來推出了一些返現和打折活動，折扣幅度有時能達到20%，不過這種“誘惑性”策略幫助開發商將後續批次房產賣出了更高的價錢。“香港看上去正處於十字路口，”施懷德說，“再過12個月左右價格會發生怎樣的變化，人們衆說紛紜。”

In one corner are the pessimists – or optimists, depending which side of the desk you are sitting on. Barclays, UBS and Merrill Lynch Bank of America foresee a downturn, with prices falling 30 per cent or more by the end of 2015 on the back of supply increases and stalling income growth.

有一小部分人持“悲觀”看法（對看空者而言，這種看法或許反而是“樂觀”的）。巴克萊(Barclays)、瑞銀(UBS)和美銀美林(Merrill Lynch Bank of America)預測樓市將回落：隨着房地產供應的增加和收入增長的停滯，房地產價格到2015年底將下滑30%乃至更多。

“The magnitude of the fall is underestimated,” wrote Barclays’ analysts. “The property market is about to enter its first real downturn since 1998.” That was when Hong Kong was caught up in the sell-off triggered by the Asian financial crisis and homes lost two-thirds of their value over a six-year period.

“人們對本輪迴落的規模估計不足，”巴克萊的分析師寫道，“樓市自1998年以來即將首次真正陷入衰退。”1998年，香港被捲入亞洲金融危機引發的拋售潮，房價在6年間損失了三分之二的價值。

Several factors support their caution. The latest run-up in prices has been strong: the property market has more than doubled since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008.

分析師的上述警告有幾點理由。最近這一輪房價上漲勢頭強勁：自2008年金融危機爆發以來，樓市已上漲一倍以上。

Buyers from the mainland, accounting for as much as a quarter of home sales at the peak in the fourth quarter of 2011, dropped to only 8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, according to Centaline, a property agency.

香港房地產經紀公司中原地產(Centaline)表示，2011年四季度，內地購房客佔香港住宅銷售額的比例達到四分之一，爲歷史最高水平。但這一比例在今年一季度降至僅8%。

CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, is on a mission to make housing more affordable for the territory’s 7m inhabitants, or at least to stem the upward spiral.

香港特首樑振英(CY Leung)正在努力爲700萬香港居民提供更廉價的住房，或至少是遏制房價繼續上漲的勢頭。

This means increasing supply – a similar policy launched by one of his predecessors Tung Chee-hwa after he came to power in 1997 quickly damped exuberance.

這意味着要增加住房供應。前任特首董建華(Tung Chee-hwa)在1997年上臺後曾採取過類似的政策，當時很快便抑制住了房價的瘋狂上漲。