地震給中國股市增變數雙語
下面是本站小編整理的雙語文章：地震給中國股市增變數，歡迎大家閱讀!
Earthquake Casts Uncertainty Over a Host of Chinese Stocks
China's stock markets could be affected for months by Monday's deadly earthquake in thesouthwestern province of Sichuan.
Chinese stocks ranging from insurers to cement makers will be sensitive to reports of thedestruction from the 7.9-magnitude earthquake that continue to trickle in from remoteareas. Stocks in companies with major operations in southwestern China and property insurerscould sink further, while construction-related stocks are expected to rise on thegovernment's plans to rebuild.
On Tuesday, China's domestic exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen suspended shares of 66listed companies based in Sichuan province and the neighboring municipality of Chongqingpending details on their exposure.
"It will be some time before the full extent of the damage can be assessed," said Jing Ulrich,chairwoman of China equities at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. "However, early reports suggestthat the impact on the macroeconomy may end up being significant."
She pointed to property developers, toll-road operators and manufacturers with substantialoperations in the region as the stocks likely to suffer most. Many of those stocks weresuspended from trading Tuesday.
China's State Administration of Work Safety told companies to shut oil wells and mines inaffected areas until conditions improve and workers can safely return to their jobs, accordingto a statement posted on its Web site.
PetroChina, the country's biggest oil producer by output, has substantial operations inSichuan, including a natural-gas field and an oil-products pipeline. Its Shanghai-listed sharesdeclined 2.6% Tuesday to close at 17.39 yuan ($2.49) apiece. A senior PetroChina official saidMonday that in the initial hours after the quake, the company hadn't received reports of anymajor damage to its production facilities there.
The earthquake is the country's most intense since a 1976 one of similar magnitude struckTangshan, a city in eastern China, killing about 240,000. The death toll from Monday's disasterrose above 12,000 Tuesday.
For Chinese insurers, the earthquake will be the second major blow this year. In January andFebruary, snowstorms paralyzed the country's infrastructure and left much of its migrantworker population stranded during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
Among the three mainland-listed life insurance companies, China Life Insurance has the biggestexposure to the disaster area, with a 38.6% share of the life insurance market in Sichuan,while China Pacific Insurance (Group) holds 11% and Ping An Insurance (Group) of China has10.7%, according to a research note by Ping An Securities, a unit of Ping An Insurance.
"As an insurer, we constantly assess the effect of natural disasters on our earnings. Whilethere'll be some effect on our earnings this year, I believe the impact will likely be limited" PingAn Insurance's chairman, Ma Mingzhe, said Tuesday. Mr. Ma said it is too early to estimateclaims related to the earthquake.
China Life's Shanghai-listed shares dropped 4.8% to 31.62 yuan Tuesday, while those of ChinaPacific Insurance fell 7.2% to 24.69 yuan. The Shanghai Composite index declined 1.8%es of Ping An were suspended from trading because of a shareholder meeting.
"Though I think China Life and Ping An are worthy of long-term investment, their stocks willlikely continue to lose attraction, not only because of the disaster but also due to theuncertainty in the stock market," said Wu Yonggang, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities.
Merrill Lynch economists argue that the earthquake should have less of an effect on thecountry's export-oriented industries, because the chief production sites for those are along theeastern coast.
"We also see little impact on China's currency, because the earthquake took place in regionsalmost negligible for China's external trade," Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and T.J. Bondwrote in the report.
In the quake's aftermath, banks might see looser credit policies. The government, which hasclamped down on lending growth to attack inflation, eased up after the snowstorms, andrelaxed controls on loans to affected areas.
"This disaster is likely to bring a partial relaxation in efforts to tighten credit, with local banksencouraged to offer loans in the worst-affected areas," says Ms. Ulrich of J.P. Morgan Chase. "We expect reconstruction activity to proceed swiftly due to the national focus onresponding to the crisis, and this will support growth in fixed-asset investments."
Shares in Anhui Conch Cement, one of the country's largest cement producers, rose 5.5% inShanghai trading to close at 64.19 yuan Tuesday. Tangshan Jidong Cement rose by the dailylimit of 10% in Shenzhen to close at 18.81 yuan.
5月12日中國西南部四川省發生嚴重地震。此次地震對中國股市的影響或許會持續數月。
從保險公司到水泥製造商等多個類股將對此次7.9級地震造成哪些損害的報道尤爲敏感。那些主要業務在中國西南部的公司的股票，以及財產險保險公司的股票或將進一步走低，而受政府重建計劃的利好消息推動，受此次災害衝擊的建築類股將會走高。
5月13日中國滬深股市66家四川省和重慶直轄市的上市公司股票臨時停牌，等待公佈進一步損失情況。
摩根大通中國證券市場部總監李晶認爲：“對此次災害損失的全面評估得等上一段時間，但初步報道表明地震對中國宏觀經濟的影響可能會很大。”
她指出對房產商，收費公路運營商和業務主要在受災地區的製造商來說，它們股票遭受的損失將可能是最嚴重的。許多這類公司的股票週二都被停盤。
國家安全生產監督管理總局在其官方網站上發佈聲明，要求各大公司關閉它們在災區的油礦和油井，直到情況有所好轉，工人可安全返崗後再恢復生產。
中國石油產量最大的企業中國石油天然氣股份有限公司在四川有大量業務，包括一個天然氣田和一條石油管道。公司在上海上市的股票昨日下跌2.6%，收於17.39元。中石油一高管週一表示在地震發生後最初幾小時，公司還未收到任何報告表明其生產設施遭到嚴重毀壞。
週一地震是中國自1976年唐山大地震以來最嚴重的一次。唐山大地震中24萬餘人喪生，而此次四川大地震死亡人數已上升至1萬2千多。
對中國保險公司來說，此次地震是今年以來遭受的第二次重擊。一月和二月中國南方雪災使中國基礎設施陷入癱瘓，許多外來務工人員在春節期間不得不滯留他鄉。
根據平安保險旗下平安證券的研究數據，三家在內地上市的保險公司中，中國人壽保險在災區的業務最多，它佔有四川38.6%的人壽保險市場份額，而中國太平洋保險和平安在四川的市佔率分別爲11%和10.7%。
平安集團董事長馬明哲週二表示：“作爲保險公司，我們會不斷評估自然災害給我們收益帶來的影響。今年公司利潤會受地震影響，但我相信這種影響可能有限。”他表示現在估算地震相關賠償金額還爲時過早。
週二中國人壽保險在滬上市的A股下跌4.8%，收報31.62元。太平洋保險跌幅爲7.2%，收報24.69元。上證綜合指數則下滑1.8%。平安因召開股東大會而停牌。
國泰君安證券分析師吳勇剛表示：“儘管我認爲中國人壽和平安是值得長期投資的，但它們的股票可能會繼續失去吸引力，這不僅是因爲受地震衝擊，也因爲受股市不確定性的影響。”
美林經濟學家則認爲此次地震對中國那些出口爲主的行業影響不大，因爲這些行業大多分佈在東部沿海地區。
美林經濟學家Ting Lu和T.J. Bond在這份報告中指出：“地震對中國貸幣即人民幣匯率影響也不大，由於受災地區對中國外貿領域影響幾乎可忽略不計。”
中國銀行業在地震過後可能會放鬆借貸政策。政府已通過限制貸款增長來抑制通脹，但南方雪災過後這種政策有所鬆動，放寬了對災區貸款的限制。
摩根大通的李晶稱：“這次天災可能促使一定程度的信貸放鬆，政府或將鼓勵當地銀行向受災最嚴重的地區放貸。由於全國重心轉移到應對這場危機上，重建工作將快速推進，這些都能促進固定資產投資的增長。”
國內最大的水泥生產商安徽海螺水泥的股價週二上漲了5.5%，以64.19元收盤。唐山冀東水泥漲停(漲幅超10%上限)，收於18.81元。
